燃料油日报：中东高硫燃料油净出口显著回落-20250926

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures rose 1.3% to 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.56% to 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has significantly declined, but there is still room for growth in the future. The upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited, and it is currently in a relatively balanced state [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly recently, but the overall supply pressure is limited. The trend of substitution of low - sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.3% at 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.56% at 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The net export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East in September is expected to be 1.21 million tons, a decrease of 1.21 million tons compared with August. However, there is still room for supply growth in the Middle East in the future, and the upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly due to the shutdown of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply pressure is limited, and the resistance above the market is still large [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices, swap near - month contracts, and month - to - month spreads of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of SHFE fuel oil and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts [3] Researcher Information - The researchers are Pan Xiang and Kang Yuanning, with practice qualification numbers F3023104 and F3049404 respectively, and investment consulting numbers Z0013188 and Z0015842 respectively [37]