原油日报：伊土原油管道出口将恢复-20250926

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade within a range. Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The agreement between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional government to resume northern crude oil exports this Saturday will add 200,000 - 300,000 barrels per day to the Ceyhan terminal, with a historical peak of around 400,000 barrels per day. This will ease the over-lightening of European refinery raw materials and increase market supply. OPEC's phased lifting of the second layer of production cuts means Iraq's resumption of exports won't cause overproduction pressure. Future focus is on the loading situation at the Ceyhan terminal [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - NYMEX November light crude futures fell 1 cent to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.02% decline; ICE November Brent crude futures rose 11 cents to $69.42 per barrel, a 0.16% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.45% to 491 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said on Thursday that Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the current gasoline export ban. After Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on many refineries, several Russian regions are facing shortages of certain grades of fuel [1] - Iraqi Prime Minister announced an agreement to export oil from Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline [1] - Indian officials told the Trump administration that if Indian refiners are to significantly cut Russian oil imports, the US must allow them to buy crude from sanctioned Iran and Venezuela. Cutting off supplies from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela simultaneously could lead to a global oil price spike [1] - US President Trump urged Turkish President Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and hinted at lifting the ban on Turkey's purchase of US F - 35 fighter jets. In 2024, Turkey was Russia's fourth - largest trading partner with bilateral trade of $52 billion, mainly in fossil fuels and electronics [1] 4. Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices will trade in a range. Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] 5. Risks - Downside risks: US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]