化工日报：EG盘面反弹，现货基差走弱明显-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG futures price rebounded, and the spot basis weakened significantly. The demand recovery is slow, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with limited upside potential. In September, the EG balance sheet has little imbalance, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, due to the early output of Yulong, the EG inventory accumulation time is advanced, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,246 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 63 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 287 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous day. The domestic ethylene glycol load remained stable at a high level [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow, with insufficient order connection. The polyester load is expected to remain stable, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released on Mondays, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 46.7 tons, up 0.2 tons from the previous week. According to Longzhong data released on Thursdays, the inventory was 40.0 tons, up 1.7 tons from the previous week. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]