氧化铝及铝四季度展望与策略

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end, and there is a certain downward pressure on overseas ore prices in the long - term, but the price decline speed and amplitude are controllable before Guinea's monopoly status is shaken [21]. - The alumina industry is in a state of large - scale oversupply and is under import pressure. The price needs to break through the high - cost part of the industry. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. - The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, and the supply will continue to increase both domestically and overseas. The demand growth rate will face downward pressure, but the low supply and inventory will support the aluminum price, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement [51][62][64][72][91]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Ore - Overseas - The latest transaction price range of Guinea's bauxite is 73 - 75 dollars per dry ton, and the bauxite freight is maintained at 20 - 25 dollars per ton. In August, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 18.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% [6][11]. - In 2025, overseas bauxite supply will continue to grow, with the main increment coming from Guinea (+50 million tons), Australia (+2 million tons), and Guyana (+5 million tons). There are many new projects planned in 2026, with a total planned increase of 62.5 million tons [13][14]. - The Q4 price game of Guinea's ore is expected to be 70 - 75 dollars, corresponding to the cash cost of alumina plants using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan of 2900 - 3100 yuan [14]. Aluminum Ore - Domestic - The domestic bauxite price remains stable. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi is 700 yuan per ton, and that in Henan is 658 yuan per ton. From January to August, the domestic bauxite output was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. The domestic bauxite supply in Q4 is expected to have no significant improvement, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 62.3 million tons, an increase of 4.2 million tons (+7.2%) compared with 2024 [20]. Aluminum Ore - Conclusion - From January to August, the total domestic and imported bauxite was 182.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%, while the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum output was +2.7%. The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end [21]. - Guinea has certain pricing power, but due to the high proportion of bauxite exports in local fiscal revenue, the government is difficult to intervene in supply on a large scale. Domestic mine governance policies will form long - term constraints on domestic ore and support global ore prices to some extent [21]. Alumina - Domestic - In August, the domestic alumina output was 8.1904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 61.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The national alumina production capacity is 104.62 million tons (excluding zombie capacity), with an operating capacity of 97.95 million tons and an operating rate of 93.6% [22]. - The alumina supply continues to recover when there are profits. There are new capacity plans in 2025 and 2026, with over 8 million tons of new projects in 2026, and the supply pressure in the second half of 2025 still exists [29][30][32]. Alumina - Overseas - There are many new production plans for overseas alumina in 2025 and 2026, with a total of 10 million tons in 2025 and 8.5 million tons in 2026. The overseas alumina supply is in a state of oversupply [34]. Alumina - Strategy - The alumina industry returns to cost - based pricing. High - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to withdraw to repair the supply - demand balance sheet. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost - The current real - time full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is over 16,000 yuan per ton, and the industry's theoretical profit is over 4,000 yuan per ton. The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, with the cost center dropping to 15,500 - 16,500 yuan per ton [51]. Supply - Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has been released as expected, with a net import of 1.56 million tons of primary aluminum from January to August, and the import scale of Russian aluminum exceeding expectations. There will still be a small amount of capacity release in Q4 2025, with a total of 370,000 tons, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 44.025 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [59][62]. Supply - Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum - The overseas electrolytic aluminum supply shows a slight increasing trend in 2025. The amount of electrolytic aluminum capacity to be increased and restarted in Q4 is 290,000 tons. The overseas supply pressure will gradually increase from 2026, mainly concentrated in Chinese - funded projects in Indonesia [64][66][67]. Consumption - From January to August, the cumulative consumption of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The demand in the first half of the year was better than expected, but the photovoltaic demand will definitely weaken in the second half of the year, the growth rate of household appliance demand is under pressure, and the automobile demand has a downward risk. The demand in Q4 will improve compared with Q3, but the year - on - year growth rate will face greater downward pressure [72]. Balance Sheet & Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment has long - term uncertainties. The long - term supply - demand of global electrolytic aluminum is generally healthy. The aluminum price in Q4 is supported by low supply and inventory, but the demand is not very optimistic, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium - long term and maintain rolling operations [91].