Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of styrene are weak and it fluctuates following the cost of crude oil. Although the prices of styrene and pure benzene are at historical lows with low valuations, the contradiction between high inventory pressure and general terminal提货 persists, and the fundamentals remain weak considering the future supply increase expectation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - Price: On September 25, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.43% at 6,958 yuan/ton with a basis of -18 (-15 tons); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.25% at 5,922 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost: On September 25, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at $65.0 per barrel (+$1.6 per barrel), the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at $68.5 per barrel (+$1.5 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,885 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - Inventory: Styrene inventory was 18.7 tons (+2.8 tons), a 17.3% increase in inventory compared to the previous period, indicating a shift to inventory accumulation. The port inventory of pure benzene was 10.7 tons (-2.7 tons), a 20.1% decrease in inventory compared to the previous period [2]. - Supply: Some styrene plants have started maintenance, and the production rate and supply have decreased as expected. Currently, the weekly output of styrene is 34.6 tons (-0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 73.2% (-0.2%) [2]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 55.2% (-6.49%), ABS is 70% (+0.2%), and PS is 59.1% (-2.1%) [2]. (2) Views - Pure Benzene: On the supply side, the overall fluctuation of petroleum benzene this week was not significant. One reform disproportionation unit of Fujia Dahua was shut down as planned, and one cracking unit of CNOOC Shell was shut down due to unplanned factors. For hydrobenzene, some previously shut - down units restarted, and the overall supply level was basically the same as last week. Market news shows that the maintenance plans of two factories in East China have been postponed, two small - scale pure benzene units in Shandong that have been shut down for a long time are expected to restart in mid - October, and there are also reports of European cargo transactions from November to December. The supply is expected to increase both at home and abroad in the fourth quarter. On the demand side, the loads of styrene and adipic acid decreased, while the loads of some units of caprolactam, aniline, and phenol increased after restarting. Overall, the actual demand for pure benzene has recovered compared to the previous period. Although the demand side has slightly improved, the terminal consumption has not shown peak - season characteristics, the downstream profits are under pressure, and the overall recovery is limited. In terms of inventory, the pure benzene inventory at East China ports decreased to 10.7 tons this week, a decrease of 2.7 tons compared to the previous period, with a de - stocking rate of 20.1%. However, considering the increased domestic supply in the fourth quarter and weak terminal demand, the pattern of inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse [2]. - Styrene: On the supply side, recently, two 600,000 - ton units of Zhejiang Petrochemical were shut down due to malfunctions and are expected to resume operation by early October, which has tightened the styrene supply in September. However, after September, new units of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will be gradually put into production, and some maintenance units will also return, so the overall supply is expected to increase month by month. Recently, the external sales of styrene by Jingbo still put pressure on the market. After a phased de - stocking, the port inventory has quickly rebounded. This week, the styrene port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 18.7 tons, a 17.3% increase in inventory compared to the previous period. On the demand side, the start - up of the 3S sector is differentiated. The start - up rate of EPS dropped to 55.2%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points compared to the previous period; ABS remained at around 70%, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points; PS dropped to 59.1%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous period, and the overall demand has shrunk [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - The main contract of styrene futures increased by 0.43% from 6,928 yuan/ton on September 24 to 6,958 yuan/ton on September 25. The spot price of styrene decreased by 0.14% from 7,130 yuan/ton to 7,120 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene decreased by 500% from - 3 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton [4]. - The main contract of pure benzene futures increased by 0.25% from 5,907 yuan/ton on September 24 to 5,922 yuan/ton on September 25. The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5,885 yuan/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea increased by 0.14% from $708.5 per ton to $709.5 per ton, the FOB price in the US increased by 0.41% from $739.5 per ton to $742.5 per ton, and the CFR price in China remained unchanged at $725.5 per ton [4]. - The difference between the domestic pure benzene price and the CFR price decreased by 1.05% from - 338.9 yuan/ton to - 342.5 yuan/ton. The difference between the pure benzene price in East China and Shandong increased by 30.30% from - 165 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of Brent crude oil increased by 2.49% from $63.4 per barrel to $65.0 per barrel, the price of WTI crude oil increased by 2.22% from $67.0 per barrel to $68.5 per barrel, and the price of naphtha increased by 0.07% from 7,594 yuan/ton to 7,599 yuan/ton [4]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - The production of styrene in China decreased by 0.27% from 34.7 tons on September 19 to 34.6 tons on September 26, while the production of pure benzene increased by 1.18% from 45.0 tons to 45.5 tons [5]. - The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 17.30% from 15.9 tons on September 19 to 18.7 tons on September 26, and the domestic factory inventory of styrene decreased by 6.01% from 21.6 tons to 20.3 tons. The national port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 20.15% from 13.4 tons to 10.7 tons [5]. (3) Capacity Utilization - Among the downstream of pure benzene, the capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased by 0.20% from 73.4% on September 19 to 73.2% on September 26, caprolactam increased by 4.97% from 88.7% to 93.7%, phenol increased by 7.30% from 70.7% to 78.0%, and aniline increased by 2.97% from 72.0% to 74.9% [6]. - Among the downstream of styrene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased by 6.49% from 61.7% on September 19 to 55.2% on September 26, ABS increased by 0.20% from 69.8% to 70.0%, and PS decreased by 2.10% from 61.2% to 59.1% [6]. 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, triggering a global adjustment of the petrochemical industry structure. South Korea was forced to cut its ethylene cracking capacity, and some factories in parts of Europe were shut down due to high energy costs [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year. The losses in the refining and chemical sector alone exceeded 9 billion yuan, highlighting the fierce competition within the industry and the severe situation of profit contraction [7]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core, coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [7]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, EPS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization, phenol weekly capacity utilization, and aniline weekly capacity utilization, with data sources including iFinD and Steel Union Data [8][13][18][21][22][24][25][26][29][30][31].
苯乙烯基本面偏弱，跟随原油成本波动
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-26 06:21