信用利差周报2025年第36期：央行支持金融机构发债加大消费信贷投放，美联储降息开启宽松窗口-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's support for financial institutions to issue bonds to enhance consumer credit supply is expected to enrich the credit - bond market product structure, but the credit risk and pricing of underlying assets need attention [3][11]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut eases the inversion pressure of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, providing external space for China's monetary policy. However, its impact on China's credit - bond market is mainly on the emotional and capital levels, and the real effect needs to be transmitted through domestic policies. Investors are advised to be cautious [4][14][16]. - The current credit - bond investment has entered a "cooling - off period", and the investment strategy should focus on coupon defense of short - and medium - term varieties, with more attention paid to industry fundamentals and individual credit - risk identification [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - Central bank supports financial institutions to issue bonds: On September 17, the central bank stated that it would support financial institutions to issue financial bonds and ABS to enhance consumer credit supply. As of August 2025, the bond - issuance scale of financial institutions reached 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.06%. This move is expected to increase the supply of ABS products and enrich the credit - bond market variety structure, but the credit risk of underlying assets should be noted [3][10][11]. - Fed's interest - rate cut: On September 17, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. It eases the Sino - US interest - rate spread inversion pressure, but the impact on China's credit - bond market is limited. The domestic bond - market logic is still dominated by internal factors. Investors are advised to be cautious [4][13][14]. Macroeconomic Data - At the end of August, the stock of social financing scale was 424 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.2 percentage points compared with July. The new social financing scale in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, mainly due to the weakened support of government bond financing for social financing. In terms of money supply, M1 in August was 6.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the M1 - M2 "scissors gap" narrowed to 2.8% [5][17]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 1162.3 billion yuan through open - market operations. Affected by factors such as the approaching quarter - end, increased cash demand for the National Day holiday, and monthly time points, the capital price increased. The repurchase rates for terms within a month increased by 5 - 12 basis points, while the 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor changed little [6][20]. Credit - Bond Primary Market - Last week, the credit - bond issuance scale increased significantly to 326.103 billion yuan, with the daily average issuance scale increasing to 65.221 billion yuan. The cancellation of bond issuance decreased to 460.5 million yuan. All bond types and industries saw an increase in issuance scale. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of 38.49 billion yuan, and most industries in industrial bonds had a net inflow. The average issuance cost of credit bonds fluctuated, with a change range of 4 - 44 basis points [23][24][31]. Credit - Bond Secondary Market - Last week, the secondary - market spot - bond trading volume was 9261.011 billion yuan, with the daily average trading volume increasing to 1852.202 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity. Affected by the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, most bond yields increased. The interest - rate bond yields increased by up to 5 basis points, and the credit - bond yields increased by 2 - 5 basis points. The credit spreads fluctuated within a narrow range, and the rating spreads changed little, with a change range within 3 basis points [35][38][42].