芳烃市场周报：旺季表现平淡，效益承压（PX，纯苯，苯乙烯）-20250926

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Lackluster Performance in Peak Season, Profitability Under Pressure (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin [2] - Institution: Hongye Futures, Financial Research Institute [2] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: PX Market Analysis Cost - International oil prices first declined and then rose recently, supported by geopolitical instability. Current Japanese naphtha is at $608/ton, and PX CFR is at $817/ton. Sinopec's September PX listed price is 7,200 yuan/ton, and the August settlement price was 7,020 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Domestic PX weekly output was 733,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.86%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, up 1.59% week-on-week. Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000-ton and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4-million-ton units continued maintenance, planned to restart in early November. Daxie's load increased to 90% in mid-September [3] Demand - Downstream PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 76.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%. Fuhai Chuang restarted as scheduled, but South China units reduced load or stopped due to weather [3] Summary and Outlook - The main 2511 contract has been in a low-level shock after a rapid decline since late August, and has continued its weakness recently. From the second quarter, the intensification of the Israel-Iran conflict in June boosted oil prices, and PX followed suit. Then, the US announced a full ceasefire, reducing the possibility of an oil crisis, and downstream prices declined with the rapid fall in the cost end. Since mid-July, affected by the macro commodity atmosphere, chemicals generally rose under the "anti-involution" policy, and PX oscillated upward supported by strong supply and demand, then fell again as the market cooled. In mid-August, it rose rapidly affected by the macro and commodity market sentiment, then gave back previous gains. Currently, the increase in PX supply due to short-process load increase and postponed maintenance of some units is obvious, while on the demand side, after the significant compression of PTA profits, rumors of production cuts increased, and terminal demand is still below expectations. If terminal demand improves gradually as the peak season approaches and the macro atmosphere is strong, there is still room for an upward trend during the "Golden September and Silver October." However, the demand in the traditional peak season is currently poor, processing fees are under pressure at a low level, and the PX supply-demand situation remains weak. The future market still depends on changes in downstream demand and profits, with a weak oscillation [3] Group 3: Pure Benzene Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The main 2603 contract of pure benzene has been oscillating after a continuous decline since mid-September. The basis between the futures main 2603 contract and East China spot has further narrowed to par, mainly due to the downward adjustment of the spot end. The arbitrage window from East China to Shandong has partially opened. There are currently reports of improved pre-holiday procurement enthusiasm from downstream and active spot buying, with the near-month contract at a premium to the far-month contract (September to October) [4] Supply and Demand - The estimated monthly output of pure benzene in August 2025 was 1.9633 million tons, an increase of 78,900 tons from the previous month and 112,500 tons from the same month last year. Units such as Fuhai Chuang, Dongfang Hualong, and Dongming Petrochemical restarted, while units such as Jincheng Petrochemical, a cracking unit of CNOOC Shell, and a cracking unit of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical stopped [4] Summary and Outlook - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene are currently at a low level. The peak season demand from downstream is currently below expectations, but the room for further decline is limited due to rigid demand procurement. The losses of styrene and phenol are expected to continue to repair. There are also reports of postponed procurement plans from downstream. In the short term, the market is trading on the expectation of styrene inventory accumulation. The spot demand for pure benzene has improved, and the supply-demand surplus has turned into a balance, but the far-month expectation remains weak. In the medium to long term, there is still an expectation of oversupply [4] Group 4: Styrene Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The main 2511 contract of styrene has been weakly oscillating recently, with a slight rebound following the cost end in the middle of the week. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,940 yuan/ton, down from before. The domestic supply of styrene has been continuously decreasing, and downstream demand has been good, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance. However, the terminal inventory has not decreased, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation, maintaining a weak and bearish expectation. The high-end transaction price of Jiangsu spot is 7,060 yuan/ton, the low-end is 6,840 yuan/ton, and the price difference between high and low ends is 220 yuan/ton [5] Industrial Chain Profit - On a weekly basis, the average profit of non-integrated styrene units in China was -485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 25.18%. The weekly profit of non-integrated styrene units in China continued to decrease, showing a downward trend. The weekly average decline of pure benzene was lower than that of styrene, and the price difference between pure benzene and styrene further narrowed, ranging from 1,030 to 1,170 yuan/ton during the period. The profitability of non-integrated styrene units decreased [5] Industrial Chain Operating Rate - The total output of styrene factories in China was 345,800 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.29%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 73.24%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%. The newly put into operation 670,000-ton unit of Jingbo Sida Rui has been included in the total capacity. Production profits led to a decrease in the load of individual units, and the Zhenli Chemical unit stopped. The loss completely covered the increase in production brought by the return of units, resulting in a slight decrease in overall output. It is expected that the impact of stopped and reduced-load units will increase around the holiday, and there are no plans for unit restart and production increase, so the output will continue to decline [5] Downstream - The improvement in exports due to previous tariff cuts was lower than expected. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have improved significantly compared to before mid-May. The main downstream industries still have profit margins, but the current downstream demand has decreased. Among them, ABS and PS have fluctuated slightly, and some EPS units in South China stopped due to typhoons, leading to a significant decrease in demand. The fundamental problem of poor profitability in the styrene industry has not changed. It is expected that downstream demand will continue to decrease around the holiday [5] Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of the mainstream styrene storage areas in South China was 13,600 tons, a decrease of 8,200 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 37.61%. According to the current port inventory data, the overall pick-up has remained stable. Affected by the typhoon weather, the arrival of ships at the port was postponed, resulting in a significant decrease in overall inventory [5] Summary and Outlook - Since mid-May, the previously continuously rising styrene has oscillated and declined. From the perspective of the supply-demand structure, styrene was in a tight supply-demand balance in the second quarter. In May, large-scale units such as Shandong Lihuayi, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Dalian Hengli were under maintenance, and the factory inventory data decreased tightly. The supply-demand side remained strong, and the decline was mainly due to the回调 of the cost end and the less-than-expected improvement in the export market and downstream. On the one hand, the pressure of increased crude oil production and poor demand prospects in the cost end still exists. On the other hand, the operating rates of the main downstream industries increased in mid-May and then declined, and the spot demand was still poor. Since mid-June, the spot and futures prices have continuously risen, on the one hand, affected by inventory news, and on the other hand, due to the strong cost end. Geopolitical news such as the Iranian parliament's approval to close the Strait of Hormuz once formed a significant positive impact, and then returned to the fundamentals. Styrene has continuously accumulated inventory, and the production and capacity utilization rates have significantly increased, and styrene itself has shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In mid-July, affected by the "anti-involution" policy, styrene old units with high energy consumption, backward technology, and small scale have become the focus of policy clearance. Previously, the production capacities of Maoming Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical have been in long-term shutdown, which is in line with the policy orientation. The increase in the futures price was mainly driven by the macro commodity sentiment. Since its own supply and demand was still in a weak off-season state, the production and sales profitability was average. Since the end of July, it has followed the cooling of the commodity market. In late August, it experienced a rapid decline and has recently oscillated and rebounded, but has not returned to the previous high. Currently, the crude oil end has first declined and then risen, the fundamentals of pure benzene itself have improved, and the cost side has a single-sided driving force. In terms of styrene's own supply and demand, the domestic supply still has room for further decline, and the downstream demand is also expected to decrease during the holiday. It is expected that the downstream rigid demand will be maintained during the holiday, and the spot demand will be weakly stable. The supply and demand will be temporarily in a wide balance state. Affected by the relatively low absolute price of styrene, there may be continuous short position reduction before the holiday. In the medium to long term, the profit of styrene units is poor. The supply and demand sides may improve during the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but the oversupply pattern of the raw material end may drive the price further down [6]