光大期货金融期货日报-20250926

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is bullish, and for treasury bonds, it is range - bound [1] Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP but was cautious, with internal differences on the path of rate cuts this year. The equity market showed mixed performance, and the market expects three rate cuts this year. In China, the demand - side indicators in August economic data declined slightly, indicating that the economy is still on the way to bottoming out. The current market rally is mainly driven by long - term policy expectations, with limited impact from current fundamentals. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to boost inflation through more fiscal support. As the important meeting in October approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and investors can reduce long positions [1] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The central bank conducted large - scale open - market operations, resulting in a net injection of 2965 billion yuan. The short - term money market rates rose. The current economic fundamentals are mixed, and there is no obvious turning point signal in the bond market, so the range - bound trend continues [1][2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose from 2,939.8 to 2,953.6, an increase of 13.8 or 0.47% [3] - IF rose from 4,530.0 to 4,562.2, an increase of 32.2 or 0.71% [3] - IC rose from 7,157.0 to 7,166.6, an increase of 9.6 or 0.13% [3] - IM fell from 7,303.2 to 7,281.8, a decrease of 21.4 or - 0.29% [3] Stock Indices - The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose from 2,939.5 to 2,952.7, an increase of 13.2 or 0.45% [3] - The CSI 300 Index rose from 4,566.1 to 4,593.5, an increase of 27.4 or 0.60% [3] - The CSI 500 Index rose from 7,323.7 to 7,341.3, an increase of 17.6 or 0.24% [3] - The CSI 1000 Index fell from 7,534.2 to 7,506.5, a decrease of 27.7 or - 0.37% [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS fell from 102.32 to 102.31, a decrease of 0.008 or - 0.01% [3] - TF fell from 105.57 to 105.53, a decrease of 0.04 or - 0.04% [3] - T fell from 107.65 to 107.61, a decrease of 0.04 or - 0.04% [3] - TL rose from 114.07 to 114.11, an increase of 0.04 or 0.04% [3] Group 4: Market News Overall Market - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, the ChiNext Index rose by more than 1.5%, reaching a new high in over three years. Most stocks fell, with more than 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declining. The trading volume was 2.39 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.58% [1][4] Industry Sectors - The controllable nuclear fusion concept rose during the session, with Shanghai Electric and Hefei Forging Intelligent Technology hitting the daily limit. The shipping sector adjusted, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Marine falling by more than 5% [4] Popular Concepts - The AI hardware and AI application sectors strengthened, with Cambridge Technology and Inspur Information hitting the daily limit and reaching new highs [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC futures contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [14][17][18][19] Exchange Rates - There are charts showing the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and various currency pairs [22][23][24][26][27][28] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [30] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures [30]