Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On September 25, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 9,055 yuan/ton with an intraday increase of 0.72%, and the position decreased by 10,966 lots to 259,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,604 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 155 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,365 yuan/ton with an intraday increase of 0.89%, and the position decreased by 5,713 lots to 105,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,135 yuan/ton [2]. - Before the double festivals, the price of silicon - coal climbed, the resumption of industrial silicon production slowed down, and downstream enterprises stocked up and increased their operating rates, leading to a reduction in inventory. In the short term, there is a co - existence of cost support and high - inventory suppression, providing a relatively strong support [2]. - A draft of the energy - consumption policy for polysilicon was released, with a slight increase in the first - and second - level standards. Since Trump plans to include silicon products in the tax list, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon during the period when both domestic and foreign policies are not yet implemented. The policy and the actual supply - demand situation deviate, and the divergence between the futures and spot markets may continue. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic policies and the US tax - rate agreement [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,020 yuan/ton on September 24 to 9,055 yuan/ton on September 25. The prices of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in most regions increased, while the prices of 421 silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from 120 yuan/ton to 155 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 49,925, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 620 tons to 249,370 tons, the Tianjin Port inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 79,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 3,800 tons to 261,400 tons. The total social inventory increased by 1,800 tons to 444,400 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,380 yuan/ton on September 24 to 51,365 yuan/ton on September 25. The prices of various types of polysilicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 1,120 yuan/ton to 1,135 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,850, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 23.70 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 24.21 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 24.2 tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market and 107 - glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined - coal prices [6][8][11]. 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic - silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial - silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [24][26]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum - alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [29][33][37]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity - research experience, and the team has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [39][40].
工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250926
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 08:02