黑色金属早报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. Steel prices may face pressure before the holiday and could decline after the holiday, but there is a possibility of an increase if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and other factors will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [8][10]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and market expectations are fluctuating [11][13]. - The ferroalloy market is driven by overall commodity sentiment and cost in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Related Information: The US will impose new high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, and Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners. Shanghai's rebar price is 3290 yuan (+10), and Beijing's is 3190 yuan; Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price is 3400 yuan, and Tianjin's is 3330 yuan [2]. - Logic Analysis: The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend at night. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 10820 tons. Five major steel products increased in production overall, with a decrease in hot - rolled coils. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils weakened, while that for rebar continued to recover. Steel inventories have reached an inflection point and are starting to decline. However, there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday, and there may be a risk of decline after the holiday, but there is also a chance of price increase if demand recovers beyond expectations [3]. - Trading Strategies: For the single - side strategy, steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; for the arbitrage strategy, continue to hold the long 1 - 5 spread and the short hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - Related Information: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, a 1.8% increase. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased, and the inventory decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased. The prices of coke and coking coal warehouse receipts are provided [6][7]. - Logic Analysis: The market has digested the pre - holiday raw material replenishment logic. The spot market for coking coal is rising, and coke enterprises are proposing a price increase. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can provide some supply. The demand for steel restricts the upside of raw material prices [8][10]. - Trading Strategies: For the single - side strategy, it is a wide - range volatile market in the short term, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, try to enter the long coking coal 1 - 5 spread at low prices; for the options and spot - futures strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - Related Information: The US Q2 GDP final value increased by 3.8% annually, and the US will impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1. The real - estate bond financing in August decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. The prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port are provided [11]. - Logic Analysis: The iron ore price dropped slightly at night. The mainstream mines improved in the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas demand remained high. The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels [11][13]. - Trading Strategies: No specific trading strategies are clearly provided in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [13]. Ferroalloy - Related Information: The November 2025 quotes of overseas manganese mines to China increased. On the 25th, the silicon - iron spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon and manganese - ore spot prices were slightly weak [14]. - Logic Analysis: For silicon - iron, the supply is high, and the short - term negative feedback risk has eased. For manganese - silicon, the supply is high, and the demand is stable. The cost of manganese - ore is rising, but the upside is limited by high supply [14]. - Trading Strategies: For the single - side strategy, it is strong in the short term but limited by high supply; for the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see; for the options strategy, sell the straddle option combination [15][18].