山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, in the short - term, gold is weak while silver is strong, and in the long - term, they are expected to rise step - by - step. The reasons include short - term hedging factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence and increased stagflation risks in the US economy; geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East; the Fed's interest rate cuts and market expectations of further cuts; and the impact of the CRB commodity index and RMB exchange rate on the price [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.01%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 2.27% [1]. - Core Logic: Short - term hedging: Trade agreements are reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence resurface; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are being fulfilled. Hedging attribute: Geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The attempt by Trump to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for over - stepping his authority to remove her have raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Monetary attribute: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. Market expectations are that the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October remains around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2]. - Data Summary: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold showed different changes; domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D increased; various bases, spreads, and ratios also changed; positions in Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold also changed [2]. Silver - Price Anchor: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - Funds and Inventory: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6]. - Data Summary: International prices of Comex silver and London silver increased; domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D also rose; bases and spreads changed; positions in Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai silver, and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange changed, and the total explicit inventory increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attributes: Federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. Various bond spreads, inflation indicators, and economic growth indicators showed different changes [8][10]. - Risk Attributes: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 16.79%, and the VIX index increased by 6.62% [11]. - Commodity Attributes: The CRB commodity index increased by 1.46% [11]. - Fed's Interest Rate Expectations: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in different periods from 2025 to 2027 are presented in the table [12].