光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.93% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 71,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 40,309 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 120 tons to 12,989 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,840 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 18 tons to 2,763 tons, and lithium recycling increased by 35 tons to 1,924 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking. Downstream inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 60,893 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,440 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 964 tons to 33,492 tons [3]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and the firm price of lithium ore still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. It is necessary to manage positions well [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,740 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 856 US dollars/ton. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton and 1,875 yuan/ton respectively. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased by 70 yuan to 6,150 yuan/ton, and the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased by 75 yuan to 7,285 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.05 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price increased by 250 yuan to 58,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Spreads: The spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 230 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 494 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells increased slightly, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, different grades of lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - Spreads: Charts 11 - 22 show the trends of various spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][22]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - Inventory: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [37][39]. - Production Costs: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].