金信期货观点-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in future oil prices, and the demand side lacks significant growth potential. Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. - The short - term fundamentals of PTA are stronger than those of PX, with PXN expected to run weakly and PTA processing fees having a slight recovery [3]. - Short - term ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory and a far - month inventory accumulation expectation [4]. - In the short term, pure benzene demand support is weak, BZN weakens, and styrene oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production increase policy, and non - OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase. Geopolitically, Russian energy facilities have been attacked, and there is a possibility of upgraded sanctions by Europe and the United States [3]. - Demand side: It lacks significant growth potential drivers. The market has anticipated the supply increase, but inventory has not significantly accumulated, and the risk of oversupply needs verification [3]. - Price forecast: Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. PX & PTA - PX: The domestic and Asian PX capacity utilization rates are at a high level, and the PX - naphtha spread has weakened. PXN is expected to run weakly due to factors such as high - level naphtha prices and lackluster downstream performance [3][7]. - PTA: There have been many changes in PTA devices. The processing fees have been slightly repaired, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, and the short - term fundamentals are stronger than those of PX [3]. MEG - Supply: The weekly MEG capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the port inventory has slightly increased, but it is difficult to be sustained within the month. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in the far - month [4][17]. - Demand: The downstream polyester load has slightly increased, and the demand in the traditional peak season has slightly improved, but the industry chain has a cautious expectation for future demand [4]. - Price forecast: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [4]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The pure benzene capacity utilization rate is at a high level, with large supply pressure due to new capacity. The downstream demand support is weak, and BZN weakens [4][28]. - Styrene: The styrene capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There will be new capacity released in September - October, and the supply is expected to gradually increase. The demand side is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][28]. Polyester Industry - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry has decreased slightly, while the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased. The terminal weaving orders have increased, and the factory inventory has decreased [23]. - Demand expectation: The downstream demand has improved, but the industry chain is cautious about future demand due to unclear trends in tariffs and exchange rates [23].