如果降息，人民币升值会延缓吗？

Exchange Rate Projections - Under the baseline scenario, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to approach 7.0 by the end of the year[1] - In an optimistic scenario, with extraordinary counter-cyclical policies, the new equilibrium for USD/CNY could be around 6.7[1] Monetary Policy Implications - A potential interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points (BP) by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Q4 may not delay RMB appreciation but could intensify it[1] - The current market does not fully anticipate a rate cut, meaning the existing exchange rate does not factor in this possibility[1] Economic Context - The recent RMB appreciation is not driven by strong economic fundamentals but rather by expectations and a self-fulfilling cycle of currency appreciation[1][10] - The Chinese government's debt cost is currently lower than economic growth rates, supporting fiscal expansion and the exchange rate[1] Investment Insights - RMB appreciation is expected to benefit Chinese stocks, with historical data showing that a 1% appreciation typically leads to a 2.73% increase in A-shares and a 4.52% increase in Hong Kong stocks[6] - The current RMB appreciation cycle has seen A-shares rise by an average of 8.31% and Hong Kong stocks by 10.52% since April 8, 2025[6] Risks and Considerations - Risks include misinterpretation of policy, unexpected monetary policy actions, and potential increases in U.S. tariffs[50]