基础化工行业双周报（2025、9、12-2025、9、25）：国际能源署发布《2025年全球氢能评估》报告-20250926

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The basic chemical index fell by 2.1% in the last two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.1 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 22.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.7 percentage points, ranking 11th [7][14]. - Among the sub-sectors, three saw gains: plastics up 3.2%, non-metallic materials up 2.5%, and rubber up 0.5%. Conversely, four sub-sectors declined: agricultural chemicals down 5.0%, chemical raw materials down 3.5%, chemical products down 2.3%, and chemical fibers down 2.0% [16]. - The report highlights significant stock movements, with 89 out of 402 listed companies in the index seeing price increases, led by Kaimete Gas, Shuangwei New Materials, and Huasoft Technology, which rose by 68.9%, 65.2%, and 62.1% respectively. In contrast, 312 companies experienced declines, with Jinpu Titanium, Jianbang Co., and Huilong New Materials dropping by 21.2%, 16.8%, and 15.2% respectively [18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of September 25, the basic chemical index has shown a mixed performance, with a year-to-date increase of 22.4% and a recent decline of 2.1% [14][16]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price changes include increases in synthetic ammonia (+2.95%), hydrochloric acid (+2.38%), DMF (+1.94%), refrigerant R32 (+0.81%), and TDI (+0.23%). Conversely, polyethylene (-0.33%) and urea (-1.49%) saw price declines [21][22]. Key Industry News - The International Energy Agency's report indicates strong growth in low-emission hydrogen projects expected by 2030, despite challenges. Additionally, Namibia has launched Africa's first fully integrated green hydrogen facility, setting a new benchmark for clean energy [28][29]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the refrigerant market will benefit from quota management policies starting in 2024, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability for companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. [29][30].