沥青周报：跟随成本端走高，但不多-20250926

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, refinery shipments increased significantly due to pre - holiday stocking, but asphalt prices were not significantly boosted. High social inventories restricted the upside space of asphalt, and high - priced supplies in some regions began to face pressure. It was expected that refinery operations would slowly pick up, but demand was restricted by capital and had limited upside potential, following the cost side weakly [6]. - This week, asphalt followed the rise of crude oil, but its performance was weaker than that of crude oil and other heavy oils. The refinery's supply and demand were both strong, with the refinery operating rate rising above 40% for the first time in two years, and shipments remaining strong due to pre - holiday stocking. Factory inventories rebounded from a low level, while social inventories continued to decline, and the curve remained significantly behind the same period in previous years, which would limit the upside space of asphalt as the peak season deepened [6]. - Currently, refinery shipments have been at a high level for two consecutive weeks due to pre - holiday stocking, but asphalt prices are still significantly weaker than oil prices. High social inventories and the rising operating rate are dragging down the market. Demand is restricted by capital and is expected to have limited upside potential, following the cost side weakly [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Weekly View - Last week's situation: Refinery shipments increased due to pre - holiday stocking, but prices were not boosted. High social inventories restricted the upside, and some high - priced supplies faced pressure. Expected slow increase in refinery operations and limited demand upside due to capital constraints [6]. - This week's analysis: Asphalt followed the rise of crude oil, but was weaker. Refinery supply and demand were strong, with the operating rate above 40% for the first time in two years, and shipments remaining strong. Factory inventories rebounded, and social inventories declined, restricting the upside [6]. - This week's view: Shipments remained high for two weeks, but prices were weak. High social inventories and rising operating rates were drags. Demand was restricted by capital and would follow the cost side weakly [6]. 02 Data Overview - 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis: Presented historical data on asphalt futures prices, spreads between different contract months, and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2022 - 2025 [8][9]. - 2.2 Asphalt Supply: Showed data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [11][12]. - 2.3 Asphalt Demand: Included data on asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related moving averages from 2020 - 2025 [14][15]. - 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports: Displayed data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [17][18]. - 2.5 Asphalt Inventories: Presented data on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes from 2021 - 2025 [20][21]. - 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Showed data on Shandong's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2021 - 2025 [23][24]. - 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Included data on East China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025 [26][27]. - 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Presented data on South China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025 [29][30]. - 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule: Listed several refineries' maintenance information, including production enterprises, maintenance devices, capacities, maintenance start times, and end times (most end times are undetermined). The total annual capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 1786 tons/year, and the maintenance loss is 60.10 million tons [32].