Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising. Due to the continuous attacks on Russian oil production facilities by Ukraine and the US President's statement on imposing strong tariff sanctions on Russia, the geopolitical risks have increased. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the future [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [10]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The China Logistics Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [11]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a slight decrease of 30,200 tons compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a significant increase of 487,200 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 94,200 tons compared with the same period last year [13][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [15]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [15]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,354 contracts or 19.13% compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and a 8.94% increase compared with the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,470 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | - 770 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,355 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 491.3 yuan/barrel | +0.7 yuan/barrel | - 36.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.7 yuan/barrel | [18] 3. Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [19][21][27] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [35][37][42] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [49][51][57]
多空强弱分化，能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:06