Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The later supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the spot price will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal consumption and secondary fattening may bring about a phased rebound, but there is limited room for a significant increase. The futures market is currently in a state of overall premium, and the outlook is bearish with a volatile trend [1][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Since the third quarter, the live pig spot market has mainly declined. The spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, dropped from a high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the quarter to nearly 12.5 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 3 yuan. The futures market experienced a round of anti - involution trading in August, but due to the under - performance of relevant policies, the premium the high the high premium, the market entered a stage of continuous premium squeezing. The large supply of live pigs determined the weak pig prices. Although there are national policy expectations for capacity regulation in the futures market, the impact on listed contracts is limited, making it difficult to maintain the high premium [3]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis of Live Pigs 2.1 Piglet Data Indicates High Later - Stage Slaughter Pressure - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a peak of 40.8 million in November 2024 and then fluctuated downward. According to commercial data, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises continued to increase from November 2024 to June 2025 and began to decrease in July and August. Based on the impact cycle of reproductive sows on slaughter, the domestic live pig supply potential will remain sufficient until April 2026 and may slightly decrease in May and June. In September, the piglet price fell below the cost line, and with the government's guidance for large - scale enterprises to reduce production capacity, the number of reproductive sows may decline, which will help ease the supply pressure after July next year. From the piglet birth data, the piglet birth volume increased month - on - month from the beginning of the year to May, and there was some differentiation among commercial institutions from June to August, but the decrease was not significant. This means that the slaughter pressure will gradually increase until November 2025 and will not significantly decrease until February 2026 [5]. 2.2 Feed Sales Confirm the Increase in Pig Inventory - From March to August 2025, the sales of piglet feed and nursery feed were generally stable with a slight increase. The month - on - month growth rate this year was slightly lower than that in 2024 but better than that in 2023. The month - on - month growth rate of finishing pig feed in July and August 2025 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023 and 2024, which may be related to the decrease in secondary fattening. Overall, the social pig inventory is increasing, but the marginal increase is slightly lower than last year [8]. 2.3 Secondary Fattening is Restrained and the Utilization Rate of Retailers' Fattening Pens Declines - The average slaughter weight of live pigs across the country has entered the seasonal weight - gain stage since September, currently at around 124.5 kg, still at a moderately high level year - on - year. Retailers' average weight has been increasing since February and reached a high in September, significantly higher year - on - year. The average weight of large - scale farms decreased continuously from June and rebounded slightly in September, but the increase was not significant. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in September was at a moderate level, indicating sufficient fat pig supply, which may be due to retailers' passive extension of the breeding time. In recent years, secondary fattening has been relatively rational, mainly with rolling operations. Due to policy guidance, leading enterprises will continue to control the sales of pigs for secondary fattening, while small and medium - sized enterprises may be less affected. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a low level since August, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a new round of secondary fattening replenishment after the long holiday [10][12]. 2.4 Slaughter Volume Increases Significantly but Demand is Limited - According to the Ministry of Commerce, the national live pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting the increase in domestic live pig supply. The slaughter gross profit margin has significantly rebounded since July and reached a relatively high level in September. The utilization rate of frozen - product storage capacity has continuously increased in September, cross - verifying with the low fresh - sales rate, indicating weak terminal consumption and the inability to effectively absorb the increased supply [14]. 2.5 The Industry Enters the Loss Zone and There is Limited Room for Further Cost Reduction - Since the third quarter of 2025, the pig price has gradually weakened, and the pig - breeding profit has deteriorated. As the national average price fell below 13 yuan, the breeding profit of the self - breeding and self - fattening model entered the loss zone. Recently, the piglet price has declined, and the expected slaughter cost of pigs fattened with purchased piglets has also dropped rapidly. As of late September, the expected slaughter cost of purchased piglets has dropped to 12.15 yuan. The prices of soybean meal and corn are currently at low levels, and there is limited room for further reduction in feed costs. The low pig price will continue to suppress profits in the future [19]. 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - Based on the number of piglet births, the period from October to February next year is when the domestic live pig slaughter pressure will be realized, especially in October and November when the month - on - month increase in slaughter is relatively large, and it will coincide with the weak demand period after the long holiday, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. Cross - verification of feed production and sales data shows that the month - on - month growth rate of finishing feed sales in July and August is good, indicating a gradual increase in inventory. In terms of the slaughter rhythm, large - scale groups have accelerated the pace of reducing the average slaughter weight in response to national policies, while the average slaughter weight of retailers' pigs is still relatively high, reflecting slow digestion of large pigs by retailers. On the demand side, overall consumption will increase in the fourth quarter, but its impact on prices depends on the matching degree of future supply. In addition, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a low level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a new round of secondary fattening after the seasonal low in October. Overall, the later supply is sufficient, the live pig spot price will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the futures market is expected to be bearish with a volatile trend [23].
四季度供应压力仍大，猪价难有乐观表现
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:18