油脂10月报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market lacks a strong upward driver and will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the later period, the combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and the stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4][53]. - Currently, domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking, and it may continue to do so slightly in the future, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight [4][53]. - The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. With insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking, which will support its price [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats. The rapeseed oil 01 contract rose nearly 4%, soybean oil fell more than 2%, and palm oil fell nearly 1% [3][10]. - Affected by policies such as the US renewable fuel policy, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and Argentina's export tariff policy, the oil and fat market fluctuated. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen, with OI - Y01 reaching a high of around 2000 [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In the short term, the oil and fat futures market will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips. The combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4]. - Domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking and may continue to do so slightly, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and it will continue to destock marginally, which will support its price [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the oil and fat market is volatile. Consider buying on dips in batches [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a positive spread arbitrage strategy for OI 1 - 5, but do not chase high prices [5]. - Options: Buy call options or sell put options [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, in September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats, and the market fluctuated due to policy factors. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen [3][10]. 3.2.2 Malaysia's Palm Oil Inventory Accumulated in August, Indonesia's Production Surged in July, and the Overall Inventory Remains Tight - Malaysia: In August, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil reached 220 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. Production increased by 2% to 186 tons, exports decreased to 132 tons, and apparent consumption reached a record high. It is expected that the production increase in September may decline, with an estimated output of about 177 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. Exports in September are expected to be slightly higher than the 5 - year average [15]. - Indonesia: In July, Indonesia's palm oil production reached 560 tons, a 6% increase, and exports were 354 tons. The inventory slightly increased to 257 tons, remaining at a historically low level. As of July, the cumulative production from January to July was 3349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. It is expected that the annual production increase will exceed 200 tons [23]. 3.2.3 The International Soybean Oil Price Declined, and India Made Large - Scale Soybean Oil Purchases - Import: As of August, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 1238 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by 19%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 389 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 25% [31]. - Inventory: In August, India's port inventory increased to 97 tons. Palm oil inventory increased from 45 to 54 tons, while sunflower oil and soybean oil inventories decreased to around 21 tons [31]. - Price: Recently, the increase in India's domestic edible oil prices has slowed down. Currently, India mainly has import and refining profits for sunflower oil. Due to Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs, the international soybean oil price declined, and the soybean - palm oil spread narrowed to below 0 dollars. It is rumored that India purchased 30 tons of Argentine soybean oil [31]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oils and Fats May Gradually Destock, and the Basis of Oils and Fats Will Increase Steadily - Palm oil: As of September 19, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 58.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 tons. The import profit was negative, but the purchase enthusiasm increased, and the far - month purchases were relatively large. It is expected that the combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [35][37]. - Soybean oil: In August, soybean crushing was about 899 tons, and soybean oil production was about 171 tons. In September and October, soybean arrivals and crushing are expected to decrease. As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 123.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The soybean oil market will maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider buying on dips [38]. - Rapeseed oil: In August, rapeseed crushing was about 22 tons, and rapeseed oil production was about 10 tons. As of September 19, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.61 tons, a decrease. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [39][40]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that Malaysian palm oil production may decline in September, and exports may increase slightly. The combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [53]. - Domestic soybean oil will continue to slightly destock, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. One can consider buying on dips when the price is low [53]. - Domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [53].