利率水平与风险平衡：“924”一周年

Monetary Policy and Economic Balance - By Q3 2025, the yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to rise to approximately 1.85%, indicating a need for a new balance between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability[2] - The central bank's cautious strategy aims to keep liquidity reasonably ample while allowing yields to reflect supply and demand dynamics[4] - The shift in fiscal policy towards long-cycle sectors necessitates a matching interest rate environment[4] Impact of New Economic Sectors - Capital-intensive industries like artificial intelligence are driving up funding costs while maintaining a strong growth outlook, leading to higher interest rate tolerance[6] - The demand for long-term capital in new economic sectors significantly exceeds that of traditional manufacturing, pushing the demand curve for funds to the right[6] - Despite rising costs, high valuations in AI-related stocks persist due to strong growth narratives, creating a potential financial bubble[7] Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics - The expansionary fiscal policy is a key factor influencing the yield on 10-year government bonds, with a high fiscal deficit rate and substantial local government bond issuance[7] - The relationship between government bond issuance and yields is positive; increased issuance without corresponding demand leads to rising yields[7] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards technology R&D and human capital investment, which have longer and more uncertain economic returns[8] Future Outlook - The balance of monetary policy will depend on the success of fiscal measures in expanding employment and the rapid growth of new economic sectors[8] - The expectation is for structural monetary policy to remain dominant, with no significant changes to the overall monetary supply anticipated[8]