Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global sugar production is expected to increase, with the supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market estimated by different institutions. The price of sugar is expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short sugar futures at high prices both in the international and domestic markets, and to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [5][7][88] Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary Market Review - In September, the price center of the international sugar market continued to decline, with the oscillation range shifting to 15 - 17 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price also slightly decreased, with the oscillation range moving to 5400 - 5600 yuan. The significant increase in Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has put pressure on the market, and the domestic market is greatly affected by the international sugar trend due to large - scale sugar imports. However, due to the relatively low price levels, there is resistance to further price drops [4][9] Market Outlook - Internationally, the increase in sugar production in major global producing areas is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, with a large increase in sugar production recently. It is likely that the bi - weekly sugar production will remain high in the near future. However, the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil has reached around 16 cents per pound, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has decreased, which is expected to further decline to relieve the pressure of the large increase in sugar production. In the Indian market, sugar production is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, and sugar production in Thailand and China is also likely to increase. - Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market recently. The import volume was high in July and August and is expected to remain high in September and October. The import volume of syrup and premixed powder is also expected to be considerable. There is also an expectation of increased domestic sugar production in the new year, so the supply side of domestic white sugar is under great pressure [5][88] Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: As the increase in international sugar production is being realized, it is recommended to short at high prices. The future supply pressure of domestic Zhengzhou sugar is also relatively large, so it is also recommended to short at high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the price center of the international and domestic sugar markets declined. The significant increase in Brazil's sugar production has put pressure on the market, but the relatively low price levels provide some resistance to further price drops [4][9] International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market generally has an optimistic expectation for sugar production. Brazil's sugar production is expected to remain at a high level, with a significant increase in recent bi - weekly sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rainfall for sugar production is good. India is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with a large year - on - year increase. Thailand's new - season production is expected to increase slightly, and China's sugar production is also expected to increase slightly. - Different institutions have different estimates of the global sugar supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season. StoneX estimates a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons, with an estimated global sugar production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons. ISO estimates a supply - demand gap of 230,000 tons, with a global sugar production of 180.59 million tons and consumption of 180.82 million tons. Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 6.2 million tons, with a global sugar production of 184.6 million tons and consumption of 178.4 million tons [12][16] Brazil's Bi - Weekly Sugar Production Soars, and the Increase Expectation is Being Realized - The sugar production expectation for Brazil's 25/26 sugar - crushing season is high, with the market expecting the production at the end of 25/26 to be between 44 million and 45 million tons, which is at a high level in recent years. Currently, it is the peak processing period in Brazil, and the final production is likely to be close to the expectation. Although the export expectation is slightly lower year - on - year, the export volume in recent months has been high, and the annual export volume is expected to be considerable. Brazil's sugar is in the inventory - building stage, but the current inventory is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [19] - According to Unica data, in the second half of August, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the second half of August, the cumulative cane crushing volume decreased by 4.78% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 1.92% year - on - year [20][21] - Brazil's National Crop Supply Company (Conab) has lowered the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million tons due to bad weather affecting cane planting, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast. However, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [22] - In terms of exports, Brazil is in the seasonal peak export period. The export volume in August was 3.744 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 20.2357 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.77%. In the first three weeks of September, the export volume was 2.4079 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.12%. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.2827 million tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous week [23] New Sugar - Crushing Season: Optimistic Production Expectation, and India's Ethanol Policy is Key - India: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the estimated sugar production is about 26.1 million tons. The sales quota in September was 2.35 million tons, the same as the previous year. The cumulative sales volume from October 2024 to September 2025 was 27.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons. The cumulative net export volume as of June was 831,500 tons, which is very small compared to previous years. The approved export quota for the 24/25 season was 1 million tons. - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the weather in the main cane - producing areas is suitable, with sufficient rainfall, and the production is expected to increase restoratively. The market expects the production to be around 35 million tons. The Indian government plans to allow 4 - 5 million tons of sugar to be converted into ethanol production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting in October. If 4 million tons are diverted for ethanol production, the actual sugar production is expected to be around 31 million tons, an increase of nearly 5 million tons compared to this season. The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be between 28 - 29 million tons. The Indian government has confirmed the start of the sugar export plan in the new sugar - crushing season in October 2025, and there will be sufficient export quota space after meeting domestic consumption and ethanol production needs [40][45] - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 10.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 14%. As of June, the cumulative sugar export volume was 3.927 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. However, compared to previous years, the cumulative export volume is still at a low level. It is expected that the export volume will be high in the later stage, but there will be challenges such as quality decline and competition with Brazilian sugar exports in the third quarter. In the new sugar - crushing season, the weather is suitable, and the sugar production is expected to remain at a high level [46] Low Industrial Inventory, and Recent Slowdown in Sales - to - Production Ratio Growth - As of September, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 467,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 196,900 tons, at a medium level in the past five years. In August, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 708,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 260,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 336,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,900 tons. - As of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio of Guangxi sugar was 89.04%, a 0.62 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous year, and that of Yunnan sugar was 86.09%, a 0.83 - percentage - point decrease compared to the previous year. Both are at relatively high levels in recent years. With the large increase in imported sugar in recent months, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down in August and September. However, due to the low inventory base, the domestic sugar inventory is expected to remain at a low level in September, and the sales and production progress will continue to improve [61] Profitable Import Margin Outside Quotas, and Significant Increase in Import Volume - According to customs data, in August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.86%. From the start of the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.37%. The import volume from Brazil was 797,500 tons, an increase of 143,100 tons from the previous month and 63,500 tons from the previous year, at the highest level in recent years. - According to Ministry of Commerce data, the arrival volume of out - of - quota raw sugar in August was 489,400 tons, at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the forecast arrival volume in September was 300,000 tons. With the large reduction of domestic sugar inventory and the increase in import profit due to the decline in international sugar prices, the import window has been opened. The sugar import volume increased significantly in July and August, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September and October based on the current domestic - international price difference [71][75] Unexpected Decrease in Import Volume of Syrup and Premixed Powder - In general, August - September is the peak import period for syrup and premixed powder. This year, the import volume has decreased sharply. In August 2025, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons, remaining at a medium level in the same period of the past five years. From January to August 2025, the total import volume was 737,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 713,300 tons, almost halving. From the start of the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to the end of August, the total import volume was 1.3769 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 490,500 tons [84][85] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The increase in global sugar production is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, but the decline in the sugar - making ratio is expected to relieve the pressure of the large increase in sugar production. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, and its ethanol and export policies are crucial. Thailand and China's sugar production is also likely to increase. - Domestically, the supply pressure is large due to the large amount of imported sugar and the expectation of increased domestic production. - Strategy: Unilateral trading - short at high prices; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Options - wait - and - see [88][90]
白糖半月报：增产预期正在兑现，糖价震荡偏弱-20250926
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:32