Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:43Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased this week with a weekly decline of about 2.30%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8][9]. - According to the USDA report, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton decreased while the shipment volume increased. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of cotton production increase in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has declined, and downstream spinning mills are less enthusiastic about restocking. The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, so the cotton price is expected to remain weak [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to the change of foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9]. - Market Review: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30% this week [9]. - Market Outlook: US cotton export signing volume decreased and shipment volume increased. In China, there is a strong production increase expectation in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton declined, downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased by about 0.32% this week. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures decreased by 53 hands, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 8738 hands, and the net short positions decreased by 8685 hands [14]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: As of September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 78.15 cents per pound, down 0.95 cents per pound from last week [18]. - Futures Market: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30%, and the price of cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.63%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 21,472 hands, and in cotton yarn futures were - 120 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3397, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [23][29][35]. - Spot Market: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,043 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,615 yuan per ton [42][53]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of September 25, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 14,181 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the imported cotton quota price was 13,336 yuan per ton, down 191 yuan per ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index for different specifications was also provided [58]. - Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit: As of September 25, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 881 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1726 yuan per ton, down 57 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481,700 tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. The industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous month [64]. - Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6%. The imported cotton yarn volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [73]. - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume: In August 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% and a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and garment exports were 14.15 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [78]. - Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic garments were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [83]. - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.: A chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [87].