瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-share market: A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index surging over 6%. Most stock index futures increased, and large-cap blue-chip stocks performed well. The market was in a state of multiple vacuums of performance, policies, and macro data, with less disturbance from domestic and foreign news. Investor sentiment was cautious due to approaching holidays, resulting in a random walk pattern and a slight decline in trading activity. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][14]. - Bond market: Treasury bond futures declined across the board this week. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern in August economic data may continue, pressuring third - quarter economic growth and providing some support for the bond market. However, in the absence of incremental positive factors, the market is sensitive to negative news. The uncertainty of the new public bond fund regulations continues to disrupt, and bearish sentiment dominates. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to watch cautiously [9]. - Commodity market: The Wind Commodity Index rose 4.59%. Gold fell from its historical high due to the rising dollar but has long - term upward potential in a globally loose liquidity environment. Crude oil's trend was volatile due to geopolitical conflicts, and long - term supply pressure remains. The commodity index is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to mainly watch [9]. - Foreign exchange market: The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. Strong US economic data and hawkish signals from some Fed officials dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a short - term rebound of the dollar. The euro was suppressed by the dollar's rebound. It is recommended to watch cautiously [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Monetary policy: China's central bank net injected 9406 billion yuan in the open market this week. The September LPR quotes remained stable, with the 1 - year and over - 5 - year varieties at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. The current economic downward pressure has increased, but previous policies are still taking effect. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September provides more room for China's monetary policy. If the third - quarter fundamentals continue to weaken, there may be a new round of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter [14]. - Capital market: As mentioned above, A - shares and stock index futures performed well, while Treasury bond futures declined [9][14]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Domestic: President Xi Jinping announced China's new national independent contributions at the UN Climate Change Summit. Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative and met with the President of the European Commission [16]. - International: The US lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% and exempted some EU products from tariffs. There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths. The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and announced the reduction of ETF and real estate investment trust holdings [18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - China: The central bank's open - market net injection was 9406 billion yuan. The 9 - month LPR remained stable. The year - on - year growth rate of total social electricity consumption in August was 5% [14][19]. - US: The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 decreased to 218,000. The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%. The core PCE price index was slightly higher than expected [13][19]. - EU: The September consumer confidence index improved slightly, but the manufacturing PMI declined [13][19]. - Germany: The September manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the October Gfk consumer confidence index improved [19]. - France: The September manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [19]. - UK: The September manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Multiple important economic data will be released next week, including China's September official manufacturing PMI, the UK's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's September unemployment rate, the US's September ADP employment, and the unemployment rate, etc. [81]