Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:59Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing high supply pressure due to a high inventory of laying hens, new egg - laying hens from previous replenishments, and an increase in egg - laying rates as the temperature drops. Although there was a demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, with the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pre - holiday stocking is ending, and the market is slowing down, causing the spot price to decline slightly. The high - capacity pressure persists, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient, resulting in a price decline again. The trading strategy is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Strategy: The trading strategy for eggs is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6]. - Market Review: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed lower. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3036 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 76 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - Market Outlook: High supply pressure persists. Although there was a short - term demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, as the pre - holiday stocking ends, the market slows down, and the spot price declines slightly, leading to a lack of upward momentum in the futures price [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Top 20 Positions: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed lower. The position volume was 315,276 lots, a decrease of 82,779 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 20,779, with a slight increase in net short positions compared to last week's - 18,354 [13]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 26 [17]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 3619 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 127 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at 583 yuan per ton [23]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was reported at - 318 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [27]. - Related Spot Prices: As of September 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 5.05 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3. Industry Chain - Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [39]. - Laying - hen Culling Index and Culling Age: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national culling age of hens was 510 days [44]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.9 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2960 yuan per ton [48]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was + 0.17 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 9.34 yuan per kilogram [56]. - Monthly Egg Exports: In August 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,121.03 tons, an increase of 1281.43 tons compared to the same period last year (an increase of 10.82%), and an increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [62]. 3.4. Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: Only a chart of price - to - earnings ratio changes was provided, but no specific analysis content [64].