Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:57Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - This week, the soda ash futures price decreased by 1.9%, while the glass futures price increased by 2.96%. The soda ash futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the glass futures declined in the first half - week and rose significantly in the second half - week [6]. - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be abundant and demand to increase, so the price may rise. After the festival, if there is no price - increase expectation, the price is likely to fall back, but there may be variables with the "anti - involution" hype. For glass, if there is no central bank interest - rate cut expectation after the festival, the price is expected to fall again [6]. - The recommended trading range for the SA2601 contract is 1280 - 1380, with a stop - loss range of 1240 - 1400. For the FG2601 contract, the recommended trading range is 1180 - 1280, with a stop - loss range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures decreased due to increased production news in the first half - week and rebounded later due to glass price increase and inventory decline before the double festivals. Glass futures fell in the first half - week due to poor fundamentals and rose sharply in the second half - week under the guidance of the over - capacity reduction document in the building materials industry [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production are rising. In the long run, some backward production capacity may be phased out, but the natural - alkali production capacity is increasing. The demand from the glass industry remains at a low level, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased significantly. For glass, the supply and demand remain at a low level. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The SA2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the 1280 - 1380 range with a stop - loss of 1240 - 1400, and the FG2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the 1180 - 1280 range with a stop - loss of 1150 - 1300 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: This week, the soda ash futures price closed lower, and the glass futures price closed higher [8]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The soda ash spot price increased, and the basis remained flat. The glass spot price strengthened, and the basis increased and is expected to strengthen further. The soda ash - glass price difference weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [12][17][22]. - Specific Data: As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was - 90 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1132 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was - 138 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price difference was 45 yuan/ton [15][20][24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Production and Capacity: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, and the production is expected to decline next week. The glass production line cold - repair number remained unchanged, and the production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic photovoltaic glass capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume remained flat [26][38][44]. - Profit and Cost: This week, the profit of domestic soda ash enterprises decreased, and the cost increased. The profit of glass enterprises increased. It is expected that the soda ash production capacity will decline next week, and the glass production capacity will remain at a low level [33]. - Inventory: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of glass enterprises declined. It is expected that the inventory reduction of glass will slow down next week [48]. - Downstream Demand: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass increased slightly, but the demand is still low [54]. - Specific Data: As of September 25, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 88.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%, and the national weekly soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.19%. The theoretical profit of China's dual - ton soda ash by the combined - soda process was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1323 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. The average weekly profit of natural - gas - fueled float glass was - 151.27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.23%; the average weekly profit of coal - gas - fueled float glass was 95.07 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.1%; the average weekly profit of petroleum - coke - fueled float glass was 61.37 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 48.34%. The total number of domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines was 296, with 225 in production and 71 cold - repaired. The national float - glass production was 1.1242 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%. The soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.6515 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%, and the total glass enterprise inventory was 59.355 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%. As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.5 days [31][36][52][56].