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股指期货周报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index surging over 6%. Most of the four stock index futures increased, and large-cap blue-chip stocks performed well. Market trading activity declined slightly. - Overseas, the final value of the US Q2 GDP unexpectedly rose, and the number of initial jobless claims last week fell more than expected, supporting the US dollar and pressuring the RMB. - Domestically, economic fundamentals weakened in August, with slower growth in retail sales, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and industrial added - value, and the real estate market continued to deteriorate. The unchanged LPR was in line with market expectations. - Overall, the domestic market was in a macro - data vacuum this week, with few domestic and overseas news disturbances. The market showed a random walk pattern, and trading was relatively quiet due to approaching holidays. The market is expected to remain volatile before new policies are implemented. It is recommended to wait and see [5][94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 rose 1.36% this week, IH2512 rose 1.06%, IC2512 rose 1.37%, and IM2512 fell 0.02%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.07%, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 1.07%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.98%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.55% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - On September 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%. - The market capitalization of the A - share technology sector accounts for over 1/4, and as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market capitalization, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan. Foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market capitalization. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 GDP was 3.8%, up from the revised 3.3%, and the core PCE price index was revised up from 2.5% to 2.6% [11]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.06%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 6.47%, the SME 100 Index rose 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96% [14]. - Overseas Main Indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 fell 0.89%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.03%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.69% [15]. - Industry Sector Performance: Most industry sectors declined. Social services, comprehensive, and commercial retail sectors weakened significantly, while power equipment and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains. - Industry Sector Main - Force Fund Flows: All industry main - force funds had net outflows, with a large net outflow from the electronics sector. - SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates: SHIBOR short - term interest rates showed a mixed performance, and capital prices remained at a low level. - Restricted Share Unlock and Northbound Capital Transactions: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 1.1265 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted share unlocks was 6.7358 billion yuan, and northbound capital transactions totaled 1180.04 billion yuan. - Futures Basis and Net Positions: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [39][44][48][52]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to remain volatile before new policies are implemented. It is recommended to wait and see [94].