Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2385 in the short - term [7]. - The domestic methanol market was slightly weaker this week. The price in the port and inland areas declined compared to last week due to factors such as increased supply and low - price impact from port sources [8]. - In the future, the domestic methanol production is likely to increase as the planned recovery capacity is more than the planned maintenance and reduction capacity. The inventory in both inland and port areas decreased this week, and the demand from the olefin industry increased slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic port methanol market was slightly weaker, and the inland market declined. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2230 - 2280 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton. The price in Ordos North Line was between 2065 - 2085 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was from 2325 - 2380 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production is expected to increase as the recovery capacity is greater than the maintenance and reduction capacity. The inventory in inland and port areas decreased. The olefin industry's demand increased, and attention should be paid to the restart of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 0.25% [11]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of September 26, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 29 [16]. - Open Interest Analysis: No specific analysis result is provided in the text. - Warehouse Receipt Movement: As of September 25, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11332, an increase of 1440 compared to last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of September 26, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2085 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [29]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of September 25, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 262 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [35]. - Basis: As of September 26, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week [37]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of September 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of September 25, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.95 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [41]. - Industry: As of September 25, China's methanol production was 1,872,675 tons, an increase of 59,510 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 82.53%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28%. As of September 24, the total port inventory was 1.4922 million tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons; the inventory of sample production enterprises was 319,900 tons, a decrease of 20,500 tons; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 273,000 tons, an increase of 39,200 tons. In August 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.59%; from January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.2398 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. As of September 25, the methanol import profit was - 18.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.3 yuan/ton compared to last week [44][49][54]. - Downstream: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 89.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.36%. As of September 26, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared to last week [57][60]. 3.5 Options Market Analysis No information provided.