反弹乏力

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market showed a pattern of opening high and closing low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day holiday are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. Overall, the market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened high and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. Upstream factory pre - orders for the National Day are not full, futures rebound is weak, and prices are under pressure. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. The market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,676 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations, and finally closed at 1,669 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The trading volume was 292,033 lots, a decrease of 9,861 lots compared to the previous day. On September 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,241, a decrease of 294 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with Hebei factories having higher quotes. High - quote factories are mainly fulfilling some export orders for port collection [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [7] Supply Data - On September 26, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 204,300 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.32% [8]