南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core focus of the market is on whether the supply of lithium carbonate can match the downstream demand increase from October to November. Near the "National Day" holiday, downstream enterprises still have restocking sentiment, and policies on new - energy vehicles and energy storage may support lithium carbonate futures prices. [3] - The report suggests focusing on two aspects: whether the downstream restocking sentiment can continue after the National Day and the implementation rhythm of the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine. If downstream restocking weakens and there is no strong demand support, the price may turn down. [3] - From a multi - dimensional analysis of supply and demand, it is expected that before mid - October, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate in the range of 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Price Range and Volatility: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 78,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 26.2% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 35.9%. [2] - Futures Contract Data: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 74,040 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily ratio of 0.00%, a weekly change of 80, and a weekly ratio of 0.11%. Other contract data such as volume, open interest, and spreads are also provided. [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 40,329 lots, with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 845. [9] 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ores are given, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - alumina stone. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,875 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 5 and a weekly ratio of - 0.27%. [19] - Carbonate and Hydroxide Prices: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are provided. For instance, the latest average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 150 and a daily ratio of - 0.21%. [22] - Price Spreads: The spreads between different types of lithium products are presented, such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. [25] - Downstream Product Prices: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes are given. For example, the latest average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,650 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 and a daily ratio of - 0.12%. [27] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The basis of the lithium carbonate main contract and brand - based basis quotes are provided. For example, the basis quote of Tianqi Lithium Industry (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 300 yuan/ton. [28] - Warehouse Receipts: The daily changes in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are presented, with a total of 40,329 lots today, an increase of 20 from yesterday. [30] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production Profit: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ores (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) are shown in the form of a graph. [32] - Import and Delivery Profits: The import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate are presented in graphical form. [32][33] 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - Procurement Management: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials, different hedging strategies are recommended based on the correlation between product prices and lithium carbonate prices. For example, when product prices are not correlated, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be bought at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton, and 40% of put options can be sold. [2] - Sales Management: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate, to prevent price drops, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be sold according to the production plan, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be used. [2] - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory, 40% of the main futures contracts can be sold at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and 60% of call options can be sold. [2] 3.6 Market Factors Analysis - Positive Factors: Jiangxi lithium ore enterprises face time - node pressure to submit reports, which may cause temporary production suspension and affect supply. Policy support for new - energy vehicles and energy storage may extend the peak season and boost demand. [5] - Negative Factors: There is a risk that downstream restocking during the peak season may fall short of expectations, and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine may increase supply. [6]