玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic. There are policy and cost - increase expectations for the far - month contracts, which cannot be falsified yet. The near - term reality is average, and the mid - stream's inventory - reduction ability during the peak season needs to be observed [2]. - For glass, supply disruptions are emerging again, and expectations are leading. Glass prices are prone to rise and hard to fall, but the high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. The near - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. From a valuation perspective, there are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [4]. - For纯碱, market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing price volatility. The second - phase ignition of Yuangxing has entered the test - run stage, and the long - term supply pressure continues. The rigid demand for replenishment in the middle and lower reaches is the main factor, and the pressure on alkali factories has been somewhat relieved. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the inventory of finished products has been reduced. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. In August, soda ash exports exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviated domestic pressure to some extent [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.42% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years. Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.39% and a historical percentile of 25.7% over three years [1]. 3.2 Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Glass Hedging - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell FG2601 glass futures at 50% ratio with an entry point of 1400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell FG601C1400 call options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low, buy FG2601 glass futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1100 - 1150 to lock in procurement costs. Sell FG601P1100 put options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 50 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash Hedging - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell SA2601 soda ash futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1550 - 1600 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell SA601C1500 call options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 50 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1200 - 1250 to lock in procurement costs. Sell SA601P1200 put options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. 3.3 Glass and Soda Ash Price and Market Data 3.3.1 Glass - Futures Prices: On September 26, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1372, down 11 (- 0.8%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1436, down 10 (- 0.69%); the 01 contract was 1252, down 18 (- 1.42%) [5]. - Spot Prices: On September 26, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1225, up 20.4 from the previous day. Different regions had different price changes, with some remaining stable and some rising slightly [6]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - Futures Prices: On September 26, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1384, down 20 (- 1.42%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1439, down 20 (- 1.37%); the 01 contract was 1293, down 22 (- 1.67%) [7][8]. - Spot Prices: On September 26, 2025, the heavy - soda and light - soda prices in different regions remained mostly stable, with some regions having a price difference between heavy and light soda [9].