股指早报：美经济数据韧性打压降息预期，A股科技结构性行-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - US economic data resilience constrains the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and increased geopolitical uncertainties weaken overseas risk assets. The domestic A - share market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. The seesaw effect between technology and banking sectors shows the market's regulatory power. The index is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with resistance at 3900 and support between 3750 - 3800. It is recommended to continue to focus on the structural market of the technology sector and the corresponding Hang Seng Technology Index in Hong Kong [2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - US economic data such as the Q2 real GDP annualized rate final value (3.8%, higher than expected and the previous value of 3.3%), Q2 real personal consumption expenditure rate final value (2.5%, higher than expected 1.7% and the previous value of 1.6%), Q2 core PCE price index annualized rate final value (2.6%, higher than expected and the previous value of 2.5%), and August durable goods orders monthly rate (2.9%, higher than expected - 0.5% and the previous value of - 2.7%) indicate the resilience of the US economy, further suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market moved in the opposite direction, with the US dollar index rising, US Treasury yields up at both short and long ends, gold rising after a decline and closing slightly higher, the three major US stock indexes falling, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating [1][4] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.58%. Most major indexes rose, but individual stocks generally fell. Traditional sectors dragged down the index, while the technology sector enlivened the market atmosphere. There was an obvious seesaw effect between technology and banking sectors. Among sectors, media, communication, non - ferrous metals, power, and computer led the gains, while textile and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, household appliances, and transportation led the losses. There were 1474 rising stocks and 3875 falling stocks in the whole market. Google's announcement of an Android computer operating system next year may bring opportunities related to the Android PC trend [2] 3.1.3 Important News - Dallas Fed President Logan called for reforming the interest - rate benchmark, replacing the federal funds rate with the Tri - Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) due to its larger trading volume. Fed officials had different views on inflation, employment, and the balance - sheet reduction. The Supreme Court was warned about market chaos if a Fed official was dismissed. Russia restricted diesel and gasoline exports until the end of the year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce conducted trade - investment barrier investigations and anti - dumping investigations, and called on the US to cancel unreasonable soybean tariffs. The National Financial Regulatory Administration held a seminar, and the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association opposed "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry [6][8][11] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - Overseas factors, including US economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, affect the market. The domestic A - share market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with attention on the technology sector's structural market and the Hang Seng Technology Index [10] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock - index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes and their corresponding futures contracts, such as closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [13][14] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - It shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volumes, and price - to - earnings ratios of major indexes and sectors. Market - style analysis reveals the impact of different styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on major indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There are also charts showing important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market trading volumes, turnover rates, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, and changes in index trading volumes [37][38][47] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - No detailed analysis content is provided, only the titles of relevant charts such as central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are given [52][53]