国投期货能源日报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price rebounded overnight. Geopolitical risks may increase in the period around National Day, with short - term upward risks remaining, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend continues. Crude - related futures hedging short positions should be combined with call options [1] - Multiple factors such as the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear issue have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have affected fuel supply, and the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from weak demand and other factors [2] - In the asphalt market, there is a pre - holiday rush for work in the north, and typhoon weather affects demand in the south. The supply pressure is weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] - For liquefied petroleum gas, refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, and import arrivals are affected by weather. With the coming of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded [2] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 0.49%. Geopolitical risks may increase around National Day, mainly in the Russia - Ukraine and Iranian nuclear issues. Without direct military conflicts, the restoration of Iranian nuclear sanctions and restricted Venezuelan exports have limited long - term impact on actual exports, but short - term fluctuations and changes in export directions may occur. If the situation in Eastern Europe further deteriorates, Russian oil and refined product exports may decrease. Trump urged Turkey to stop buying Russian oil, and Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export bans until the end of the year. Short - term upward risks remain, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend has not ended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple international factors have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have led to a decline in the operating rate, and Russia extended its diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year, intensifying the impact on refined product supply. If export restrictions expand to non - gasoline products, the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports will strengthen, directly supporting high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still under pressure from weak demand, increased overseas production, and sufficient domestic quotas [2] Asphalt - There is a pre - holiday rush for work in northern regions, and typhoon weather affects demand in southern regions. Refinery and social inventories have slightly increased. The national production plan for October is 350,000 tons more than the same period last year and 4,000 tons less than the previous month, with supply pressure weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, resulting in a decline in commercial volume compared to last week. Typhoon weather in South China affects import arrivals, and the import volume in East China has increased but remains at a low level. Chemical demand is stable, and with the coming of the gas consumption peak season, overall consumption is expected to increase. The market has bottomed out and rebounded [2]