集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) continued its oscillating trend as expected. By the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed results. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional investors on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 1,523 lots to 18,659 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,060 lots to 19,737 lots. The trading volume decreased by 16,778 lots to 26,471 lots (bilateral). As previously expected, some investors gradually closed their positions approaching the National Day holiday [3]. - The positive impact from the rebound in spot cabin quotes has weakened, with no significant change in European Line spot cabin quotes today, making the impact neutral. Trump's additional tariffs on certain specific commodities brought a slight negative impact from a macro - sentiment perspective. In the remaining two trading days next week, attention should still be paid to the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations. The latest SCFI European Line dropped below $1,000/TEU, which may bring certain negative factors to the market. In the short term, the futures price is more likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward; the 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and overall, it is mainly advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about the decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a recommended entry range of 1,250 - 1,350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a recommended entry range of 1,000 - 1,100 [2]. 利多解读 - Maersk's European Line spot cabin quotes for mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and in the following two weeks, MSC's European Line spot cabin quotes also followed with a slight rebound [4]. 利空解读 - On September 25, Eastern Time, US President Trump announced on social media that starting from October 1, a batch of imported goods would be subject to additional tariffs, including brand drugs, heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and upholstered furniture. Specifically, "any brand or patented drugs" entering the country will be subject to a 100% tariff, but companies building pharmaceutical factories in the US will be exempted. The US will also impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and a 30% tariff on imported upholstered furniture [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 26, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 115.92 points, with a daily increase of 34.00 points and a weekly decrease of 88.50 points; the basis of EC2512 was - 522.08 points, with a daily increase of 6.10 points and a weekly decrease of 147.00 points; the basis of EC2602 was - 430.08 points, with a daily increase of 11.20 points and a weekly decrease of 122.50 points; the basis of EC2604 was - 13.68 points, with a daily increase of 16.50 points and a weekly decrease of 18.60 points; the basis of EC2606 was - 228.58 points, with a daily decrease of 1.20 points and a weekly decrease of 229.72 points; the basis of EC2608 was - 362.28 points, with a daily increase of 10.80 points and a weekly decrease of 207.62 points [6][7]. EC Price and Spread - On September 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1,139.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.26% and a weekly increase of 6.07%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1,777.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.10% and a weekly increase of 8.38%; the closing price of EC2602 was 1,685.0 points, with a daily increase of 6.81% and a weekly increase of 8.31%; the closing price of EC2604 was 1,268.6 points, with a daily increase of 2.21% and a weekly increase of 2.38%; the closing price of EC2606 was 1,483.5 points, with a daily increase of 2.56% and a weekly increase of 1.98%; the closing price of EC2608 was 1,617.2 points, with a daily increase of 2.29% and a weekly increase of 1.07% [7]. - Regarding price spreads, EC2510 - 2602 was - 523.2 points, with a daily decrease of 49.5 points and a weekly decrease of 63 points; EC2602 - 2606 was 213.9 points, with a daily increase of 71.1 points and a weekly increase of 101.3 points; EC2606 - 2510 was 309.3 points, with a daily decrease of 21.6 points and a weekly decrease of 38.3 points; EC2510 - 2512 was - 610.1 points, with a daily decrease of 28.0 points and a weekly decrease of 70.7 points; EC2512 - 2602 was 86.9 points, with a daily decrease of 21.5 points and a weekly decrease of 14.8 points; EC2602 - 2604 was 411.1 points, with a daily increase of 84 points and a weekly increase of 100.2 points [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes (CY - CY, Shanghai - Rotterdam) - On October 15, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,139, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,900, a $10 increase from the previous period. On October 17, the total quote for 20GP was $1,085, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,810, a $10 increase from the previous period [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European Line was 1,254.92 points, a decrease of 185.32 points (- 12.87%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US West Line was 1,193.64 points, a decrease of 156.2 points (- 11.57%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the European Line was $971/TEU, a decrease of $81 (- 7.70%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the US West Line was $1,460/FEU, a decrease of $176 (- 10.76%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the European Line was $1,874/FEU, a decrease of $42 (- 2.19%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the US West Line was $1,844/FEU, a decrease of $27 (- 1.4%) from the previous value; the latest value of the FBX Composite Freight Rate Index was $1,863/FEU, a decrease of $2 (- 0.11%) from the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 25, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 2.079 days, an increase of 0.306 days from the previous day and 0.757 days from the same period last year; at Shanghai Port, it was 1.358 days, an increase of 0.068 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.282 days from the same period last year; at Yantian Port, it was 0.638 days, an increase of 0.178 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.204 days from the same period last year; at Singapore Port, it was 2.013 days, an increase of 0.846 days from the previous day and 1.411 days from the same period last year; at Jakarta Port, it was 0.924 days, a decrease of 0.174 days from the previous day and 0.863 days from the same period last year; at Long Beach Port, it was 1.935 days, a decrease of 0.344 days from the previous day and 0.337 days from the same period last year; at Savannah Port, it was 2.241 days, an increase of 0.763 days from the previous day and 0.892 days from the same period last year [15]. Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 25, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8,000 was 15.398 knots, a decrease of 0.03 knots from the previous day and 0.365 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3,000 was 14.567 knots, an increase of 0.034 knots from the previous day and a decrease of 0.564 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1,000 was 13.228 knots, a decrease of 0.074 knots from the previous day and 0.217 knots from the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 32, an increase of 17 from the previous day and 21 from the same period last year [24].