丙烯产业风险管理日报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include poor profit conditions in most downstream industries, leading to resistance to high - priced propylene. The market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors are cost support from strong overseas propane prices and some enterprise maintenance plans due to PDH profit losses; negative factors are the limited ability of the PP end to accept high - priced propylene, a weakening of the fundamentals this week, an expansion of the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market, and a decline in spot prices followed by low - level fluctuations [3][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - Price Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0556, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.1666 [2]. - Hedging Strategy: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton range. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6600) to collect premiums with a 50% ratio in the 100 - 120 yuan range [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio around 6300 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums with a 25% ratio in the 30 - 40 yuan range [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Cost support from strong overseas propane prices, with the cost estimated by CP01 at 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have maintenance plans due to PDH profit losses [6]. - Negative Factors: The PP end has limited ability to accept high - priced propylene, and the PP - propylene price spread is still low. This week, the fundamentals weakened, the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market expanded, and spot prices declined and then fluctuated at a low level [6]. 3.3 Industry Data Summary - Upstream Prices: On September 23, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.17/barrel (up $1.16 from the previous day, down $0.86 from the previous week), WTI was at $63.65/barrel (up $1.31, down $0.18), etc. [7]. - Mid - stream Prices: The price of propylene in East China was 6350 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from the previous day, down 100 yuan from the previous week), and in Shandong was 6485 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan, down 65 yuan) [7]. - Downstream Prices: Polypropylene powder was at 6710 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 60 yuan from the previous week), and polypropylene pellets were at 6775 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan, down 25 yuan) [7]. - Profits: Main refinery profit was 823.98 yuan/ton (down 98.7 yuan from a previous record), MTO monomer profit was - 216.67 yuan/ton (down 24.17 yuan from the previous day, down 33.33 yuan from the previous week), etc. [7]. - Price Spreads: The PP01 - PL01 spread was 515 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan from the previous day, down 10 yuan from the previous week), and the PL01 - 02 spread was - 35 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, down 19 yuan) [7].