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市场风险偏好延续改善
Wanlian Securities·2025-09-26 11:14

Market Overview - As of September 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,853.30 points, a slight decrease of 0.12% compared to the end of August. The major indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices experiencing significant gains while the Shanghai 50 index saw a minor decline [3][13]. - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in China grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, rose by 4.2% from January to August [10][48]. Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - The liquidity in the A-share market is expected to continue improving, with significant long-term funds holding approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3][26]. - The net reduction in major shareholders' holdings in September was 456.82 billion yuan, while the total amount of A-share unlocks was about 3,179.75 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous month [26][30]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market from September 1 to 25 was 24,545.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.36% increase from the previous month [30]. Valuation Levels - As of September 25, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the STAR 50 index is at a historical high of 99.85% [41][44]. - The valuation of various industries shows that sectors like commerce, telecommunications, electronics, and media have PE ratios exceeding the historical 50% percentile, indicating strong market performance [46]. Policy Analysis - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with the government implementing measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand. Recent policies include a focus on enhancing service consumption and improving financial support [48][49]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming to maintain liquidity and facilitate economic recovery [20][48].