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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market will remain in a pattern of "favorable macro - environment + supply shortage" in the fourth quarter. Despite weak traditional demand, the supply - side bottleneck is difficult to ease. With the support of domestic and foreign policies, the copper price has strong downside support and still has upward potential, likely to operate in the range of 78,000 - 85,000 yuan. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cut path, and the sustainability of domestic demand policies [46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, copper prices showed a range - bound pattern. The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated between 77,570 - 83,090 yuan/ton. In early July, the US unexpectedly announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, causing copper prices to fall under pressure. Subsequently, the market digested the news, and the focus returned to the structural shortage of global copper mine supply and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. At the end of the quarter, due to mine - end disturbances, copper prices broke through the range, reaching a maximum of 83,090 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Tariff Policy: Trump's repeated signals of imposing tariffs on copper imports in 2025 have led to a continuous widening and repeated record - highs of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper. The price - difference change is divided into three stages. The impact of the tariff policy is gradually easing, but macro - uncertainty remains high during Trump's tenure. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations in November [11][12]. - Inflation: China's CPI in August 2025 decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the high base of the previous year and lower - than - seasonal food prices. The PPI decline narrowed, and the price of some energy and raw material industries rebounded. The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a stable recovery of inflation in the future [17]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply Side - Copper Concentrate: In Q3 2025, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained deeply negative. Although there was a rebound in mid - August, it returned to around - 40 US dollars due to frequent mine - end disturbances. The long - term TC/RC has also reached a historical low, indicating a "strong mine, weak smelting" pattern. In Q4, the spot TC may continue to be deeply negative [21]. - Refined Copper Production: In August 2025, China's refined copper production increased year - on - year. However, in September, the number of smelters undergoing maintenance increased, and the production decline was more significant. In Q4, the number of domestic smelters undergoing maintenance will increase, and production may be affected [24][26]. - Scrap Copper Imports: In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased month - on - month, mainly due to import losses, extreme weather affecting transportation, and a decrease in overseas scrap copper exports [28]. - Demand Side - Real Estate: In August 2025, the real estate market continued to decline, with sales, investment, new construction, and completion areas all showing negative growth. Although first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, investment and construction are still under pressure [34]. - Automobile Industry: In August 2025, the production and sales of traditional cars increased year - on - year, while the proportion of fuel - powered cars decreased. The new - energy vehicle industry maintained strong momentum, with high production and sales growth rates and a large market share [39]. - Home Appliances: In August 2025, the production of household refrigerators and air - conditioners increased year - on - year, but the air - conditioner sales decreased slightly. In Q4, the home - appliance sector may face pressure of slowing growth due to the advance of demand by the "trade - in" policy and potential export pressure [42]. - Inventory: Since February 2025, the copper inventories of the three major exchanges have shown a divergent trend, with LME copper inventory hitting a record low. As of September 26, the US copper inventory exceeded the sum of LME and SHFE copper inventories. In Q4, the inventory accumulation of COMEX may slow down, and the non - US copper inventory may rebound [45]. 3.4 Future Outlook - Macroeconomic: The Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice more this year, which will drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry. The impact of tariffs is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the trade negotiations in November [47]. - Copper Market: The copper market will remain in a pattern of "favorable macro - environment + supply shortage" in Q4. The copper price is likely to operate in the range of 78,000 - 85,000 yuan, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [46].