国投期货农产品日报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ★☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to tighten in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply chain gaps will ease, and the supply in Q2 will depend on the Brazilian new crop [2][4] - The soybean meal market is greatly affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism about the Dalian soybean meal [3] - Soybean and palm oil are expected to operate in a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered [4] - Rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6] - Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] - The current live pig futures price is bearish, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction and policy support [8] - For egg futures, consider long positions in far - month contracts and pay attention to short - position funds in near - month contracts [9] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans show a stronger price than imported soybeans, and the price difference is expanding. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed with weak quotes. China has accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply may tighten in Q1 next year, and the Brazilian new crop in Q2 is crucial [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal fell 0.81% today. After Argentina's export policy was introduced, it fell sharply. About 2.2 million tons of Argentine soybeans were imported during the period. The market is disturbed by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated this week. China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply of domestic beans may tighten in Q1 next year. The EU postponed the anti - deforestation regulations, and palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in Q4. Consider a protective call strategy [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintains an oil - strong and meal - weak pattern. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound. Rapeseed inventory is extremely low, and coastal oil mills may shut down after the National Day. Rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - Dalian corn rose 0.55% today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn output. With the increase in the listing of new corn, the opening price has been falling. It may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fell to a new low, and the spot price also weakened. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year. Consider the re - entry of secondary fattening and government support. The current futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are low, and the futures price is weak. The post - holiday demand will be weak. There is a need for deep capacity reduction. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [9]