上海钢联期货玉米、淀粉产业链日报-20250926

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - New season supply pressure is emerging, with new grain quotes falling after a high opening, and prices will remain under pressure during the peak listing period [1] - Current corn supply is limited, with harvest delayed in some areas. Spot prices are more resilient than futures, and the futures market has rebounded [1] - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as new grain floods the market [1] - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of a bumper harvest and waiting for further supply - side guidance [1] - Argentina's short - term export policy is volatile, causing unexpected disturbances to agricultural product prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1利多解读 (Positive Factors) - On September 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on increasing the large - scale yield per unit area of grain and oil crops and the "Three Autumns" production. The purchase and reserve policy of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation may be introduced depending on price movements, but there is uncertainty [1] - In August, imported corn remained at a low level, resulting in less substitution pressure [1] - The supply of old - season grain is tight, and harvest is delayed in some areas. It will take time to replenish. Deep - processing enterprises' rigid demand for restocking supports spot prices [1] 3.2利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary oversupply of supply is putting pressure on prices [2] - Grain sources in the Northeast production area are restricted by prices and difficult to transport out. Local enterprises still focus on price control [2] 3.3 Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - Corn futures: On September 25, 2025, compared with September 24, 2025, corn 11 rose by 1 (0.05%), corn 01 fell by 3 (- 0.14%), corn 03 fell by 3 (- 0.14%), corn 05 fell by 6 (- 0.27%), corn 07 fell by 5 (- 0.23%), and corn 09 remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] - Corn starch futures: On September 25, 2025, compared with September 24, 2025, corn starch 11 rose by 5 (0.20%), corn starch 01 fell by 1 (- 0.04%), corn starch 03 fell by 3 (- 0.12%), corn starch 05 fell by 3 (- 0.12%), corn starch 07 fell by 4 (- 0.16%), and corn starch 09 fell by 9 (- 0.35%) [1] - Wheat average price: On September 25, 2025, it rose by 2 (0.08%) compared with September 24, 2025 [1] 3.4 Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis - Corn spot prices: On September 25, 2025, the price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged at 2300, the price in Shekou Port rose by 10 to 2460, and the price in Harbin remained unchanged at 2170 [10] - Corn starch spot prices: On September 25, 2025, the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2780, the price in Jilin remained unchanged at 2570, and the price in Heilongjiang remained unchanged at 2500 [10] - Corn basis: On September 25, 2025, the main - contract basis in Jinzhou Port fell by 1 to 135 [10] - Corn starch basis: On September 25, 2025, the main - contract basis in Shandong fell by 5 to 306 [10] 3.5 U.S. Corn Prices and Import Profits - On September 25, 2025, CBOT corn main - contract rose by 0.75 (0.18%) to 424.75, COBT soybean main - contract rose by 3.5 (0.35%) to 1012, CBOT wheat main - contract rose by 6.75 (1.3%) to 526.25 [23] - The duty - paid price in the U.S. Gulf rose by 5.3 (0.25%) to 2151.47, with an import profit of 298.53; the duty - paid price in the U.S. West rose by 5.26 (0.26%) to 2008.88, with an import profit of 441.12 [23]