黑色金属日报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot Rolled: ★★☆ (suggesting a clearer upward/downward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (representing a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ★★★ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ (suggesting a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ (meaning a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability in the market) [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability in the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak short - term trend due to weak overall domestic demand, though steel exports remain high [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level with uncertainties from overseas trade frictions and a need for domestic stimulus policies [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to oscillate downward after the completion of pre - holiday stockpiling, despite support from high downstream hot metal levels [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have upward price drivers with good demand, and it is recommended to go long on dips [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Thread's apparent demand improved month - on - month, production stabilized, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand and production both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. High hot metal production alleviated the negative feedback pressure in the industry chain, but poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain high. The market sentiment is low, and the short - term trend is weak [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. Overseas shipments are relatively strong, and non - mainstream shipments have increased significantly recently. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory has increased. There is no significant short - term inventory accumulation pressure. Domestic terminal demand is weak, but steel mills have a small profit and are reluctant to cut production actively. High hot metal production this week continues to support iron ore demand. The market is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated downward today. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was partially implemented. Coking profit is average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to increase. Due to pre - holiday stockpiling demand, traders' purchasing willingness increased. The carbon element supply is abundant, and high downstream hot metal levels support the price. After the completion of pre - holiday stockpiling, the price is likely to oscillate downward [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated downward today. Coking coal mine production increased slightly. The pre - holiday stockpiling sentiment has basically ended, and spot auction transactions may weaken before the holiday. Terminal inventory has increased. Total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although some mines have resumed production, it is less likely to significantly increase production capacity under the background of over - production inspection. High downstream hot metal levels support the price. After the completion of pre - holiday stockpiling, the price is likely to oscillate downward [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated weakly today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created a new upward price driver. Hot metal production has continued to rise above 241. Weekly silicon manganese production has continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level. Inventory has not increased, and both futures and spot demand are good. The forward quotation of manganese ore has increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore has been boosted. Manganese ore inventory has increased, but at a slow pace. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillated weakly today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created a new upward price driver. Hot metal production has continued to rise above 241. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. Metal magnesium production has decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand has declined marginally. Overall demand is acceptable. Supply has recovered to a high level, market futures and spot demand are good, and on - balance inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [8].