焦煤焦炭第三季度报告

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of coking coal will gradually shift from tight balance to looseness, with low inventory providing price support; the production enthusiasm of independent coking enterprises for coke is better than last year, but their bargaining power is weak, and the demand for coke is supported by high - level hot metal production. The market needs to focus on the supply increment after the National Day, downstream winter storage demand, policy implementation, and market game results [32][34]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the coking coal and coke futures markets showed a strong trend. In July, the market rebounded strongly driven by macro and policy expectations. In August, the market diverged, and the driving logic shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. Although the price decline was limited due to cost support and pre - holiday replenishment demand [8]. 02 Data Analysis - Coking Coal Supply: As of the week of September 26, the operating rates and daily output of sample coal washing plants and mines decreased year - on - year. Domestic coking coal supply was restricted by policies, while Mongolian coal imports increased, and the overall supply shifted from tight balance to looseness [11]. - Coking Coal Imports: As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by about 8% year - on - year. Mongolia and Russia dominated, and Canada's share increased. The main import increment in Q4 is expected to come from Mongolia [12]. - Coking Coal Inventory: As of the week of September 26, the coking coal inventories of mines, coal washing plants, and ports decreased year - on - year. The inventory transferred downstream, and the low - inventory state provided price support [18]. - Coking Coal Replenishment Logic: As of September 26, the coking coal inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased year - on - year. The inventory changes of independent coking enterprises were related to profits, while steel enterprises' replenishment was affected by seasonal expectations and actual demand [21]. - Coke Production: As of the week of September 26, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises increased year - on - year, while those of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises maintained high production to make up for profits, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on production enthusiasm [23]. - Coke Demand: As of the week of September 26, the profitability, daily hot metal output, and weekly coke consumption of steel enterprises increased year - on - year. High hot metal production supported coke demand, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the steel industry's output reduction policy [26]. - Coke Inventory: As of the week of September 26, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased year - on - year, while that of steel enterprises and ports increased. High hot metal production drove inventory transfer, and attention should be paid to the balance between downstream demand and upstream production adjustment [28]. - Price Fluctuations: As of the week of September 26, independent coking enterprises had an average loss of 34 yuan per ton of coke. In Q3, there were multiple rounds of price increases and decreases, and the new round of price increases needed to observe market game results [29]. 03 Market Outlook - Coking Coal: In Q4, the supply of domestic coking coal is limited, but Mongolian coal supplements. The inventory transfer is restricted by the weak reality, and the low - inventory state supports prices. The replenishment of downstream enterprises is affected by profits and actual demand [32]. - Coke: In Q4, the production enthusiasm of independent coking enterprises is better, but their bargaining power is weak. High - level hot metal production supports coke demand. The new round of price increases needs to observe market game results, and the coke futures market follows coking coal fluctuations [34].