东吴期货原油四季报：此消彼长，供应压力逐渐显现

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view that oil prices will decline throughout the year. It is expected that the supply - demand balance in the oil market will gradually break by the end of the year, and Brent crude oil prices are likely to challenge the $60/barrel mark again. The expected price range for the second half of the year is $57 - 86/barrel, with an average of $67/barrel. In the fourth quarter, supply is increasing while demand is seasonally decreasing, making oil prices prone to decline. The reference price range for Brent crude is $59 - 74/barrel, with an average of $64/barrel [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Fourth - Quarter Outlook - The report maintains previous views that oil prices will decline throughout the year. Non - OPEC+ supply will significantly increase in the second half of the year, and seasonal peak consumption will end in the third quarter, leading to a break in the oil market balance. Considering additional negative factors, the oil market remains difficult. The expected price range for the second half of the year is $57 - 86/barrel, with an average of $67/barrel. In the fourth quarter, supply increases while demand seasonally decreases, and the reference price range for Brent crude is $59 - 74/barrel, with an average of $64/barrel [1][2]. 2. Third - Quarter Market Review - In the third quarter, the trading center of oil prices gradually declined. The increase in early July was driven by strong demand, and subsequent increases were mostly due to geopolitical situations. Declines were driven by the disappearance of supply - risk - driven increases, high tariffs, poor non - farm employment reports, and OPEC+'s decision to gradually exit production - cut agreements. Excluding short - term disturbances, oil prices showed weakness after August, which was due to the market's consensus on supply surplus. The height of price rebounds also showed a decreasing trend [5]. 3. Crude Oil Balance Sheet (1) Supply Surplus Remains the Consensus - IEA and EIA have continuously raised supply expectations for three consecutive months, with non - OPEC+ supply growth far exceeding global demand growth. OPEC maintains an optimistic demand forecast and implies that OPEC+ needs to increase production to balance supply and demand. Overall, IEA and EIA expect future supply to far exceed demand and inventory to increase significantly, while OPEC is endorsing potential future production increases [7][8]. (2) The Balance Sheet Shows a Gradual Increase in Supply - Demand Surplus - According to the EIA balance sheet, supply exceeds demand in all quarters of this year and next year. After the summer peak consumption season, the supply - surplus pattern will expand. The surplus in the third and fourth quarters of this year and the first quarter of next year will exceed 2 million barrels per day, and the situation will improve in the second quarter of 2026 [10]. (3) The Narrative of Large - Scale Supply is Further Strengthened - IEA and EIA have continuously raised supply growth expectations. Compared with three months ago, their global supply growth expectations have increased by 900,000 and 790,000 barrels per day respectively. IEA attributes all the 900,000 - barrel - per - day increase to OPEC+, while EIA attributes most of the supply increase to non - OPEC+. OPEC has raised its 2026 Call On OPEC+ forecast to justify future production increases [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomics and Its Marginal Changes (1) The Essence of the Fed's Shift to Rate Cuts is the Increasing Risk in the Employment Market - The Fed has been hesitant about rate cuts this year due to signs of stagflation in the US economy. Traditional monetary policies are ineffective in stagflation. Currently, US core inflation is stubborn, and employment indicators have been disappointing for two consecutive months, indicating increasing employment market risks. The Fed's shift to preventive rate cuts is to prioritize economic stability [16][17]. (2) The Contradictory September Fed Meeting - The Fed cut rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The September dot - plot shows a significant downward shift, indicating that doves are gaining the upper hand. The median and average both decreased by 25BP. The meeting content is contradictory, with the policy statement highlighting employment risks while the economic forecast shows a decline in the unemployment rate. The report predicts that the Fed will cut rates twice in the second half of the year [20][21][22]. 5. Microeconomics and Its Marginal Changes (1) The Month - Spread Indicates a Weakening of Supply - Demand Fundamentals - The month - spread reflecting immediate supply - demand relations has weakened since August but rebounded slightly due to geopolitical situations. Global supply increases and seasonal demand decline will continue to pressure the oil market. The month - spread in the Middle East is relatively strong, supported by China's strategic oil reserves. China's implied inventory increase from March to August this year reached a monthly average of 1.33 million barrels per day, the highest since 2020 [24]. (2) Crack Spreads Still Provide Support - Crack spreads remain supported, mainly due to diesel. OPEC+'s production cuts since 2022 have reduced the supply of intermediate components, and sanctions on Russia have further decreased the supply of middle - distillates. Diesel crack spreads are the main support for the market, and the performance of US distillate oil consumption is a key signal [29][31]. (3) Production Will Continue to Rise in the Fourth Quarter - OPEC+ will gradually exit a 1.65 - million - barrel - per - day production - cut agreement in October and increased production by 137,000 barrels per day in that month. Except for Kazakhstan, other OPEC+ countries have closely followed their production targets. If calculated according to the IEA's report, OPEC+'s production - increase capacity will far exceed market expectations. Non - OPEC+ production is also increasing, with countries like Canada, Brazil, and others contributing to the growth. The current oil supply pattern fits the narrative of large - scale supply, and $55 - 60/barrel is considered a balance point for various stakeholders [33][39][40]. (4) Demand Gradually Moves Out of the Peak Season - Although crack spreads are temporarily strong, seasonal demand decline exists. After the peak travel season and summer power - generation demand in the Northern Hemisphere end, refinery maintenance will increase, and demand will decline. The fourth - quarter demand boost will be limited, and the market will focus on the weak demand in the first quarter [41][42]. (5) Pay Attention to Geopolitical and Sanction Disturbances - Geopolitical and sanction factors are the only things that can change the current large - scale supply situation. Russia will partially restrict diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban due to attacks on its refineries. EU and US sanctions on Russia have had limited long - term impacts on oil supply [43].