原油三季度报：基本面与地缘政治博弈，油价有望延续宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the oil industry. 2. Core View - In the fourth quarter, the crude oil market will continue to face a game between fundamentals and geopolitics. The expected supply surplus due to OPEC+ production increases and the end of the demand peak season will suppress oil prices, while geopolitical tensions may support prices. Overall, oil prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with the WTI crude oil price recommended to be monitored in the range of $55 - 75 per barrel [53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - In the third quarter, crude oil showed a slightly weak oscillating trend. After the end of the Israel - related conflict, the geopolitical risk premium declined rapidly. The changing US - Russia relations caused short - term market disturbances, and the "strong reality, weak expectation" situation supported oil prices but couldn't drive continuous growth. As the demand peak season ended, the expected supply surplus pressured oil prices. Attention should be paid to demand changes and geopolitical developments [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Fed Interest Rate Cut: On September 18, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut in 2025. It is expected to cut rates two more times in 2025, once each in 2026 and 2027. Powell pointed out that the US labor market is weakening. After the interest - rate cut, market sentiment recovered, but further economic data decline may strengthen the expected supply surplus and pressure oil prices [10]. - Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical events such as the US - Russia "Putin - Trump meeting", threats of sanctions against Russia, suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and threats of tariffs on Russian oil buyers have intermittently affected oil prices. Given the large differences in core interests between the two sides of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, geopolitics will remain a major factor affecting oil prices in the fourth quarter [11]. - OPEC+ Production Adjustment: OPEC+ completed the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase one year ahead of schedule in September and will implement a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production adjustment starting in October. Some countries will compensate for over - production by 2026. IEA raised its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, while EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [14][17]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Supply Side - OPEC+ production increased from July to August 2025, with a cumulative output of 55.418 million barrels per day, a 1.082 - million - barrel - per - day increase from the previous period. The production increase is expected to fully reach 2.2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, increasing supply pressure [19]. - As of September 19, US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase from June and August. US oil production is expected to remain stable but faces multiple risks [21]. - As of September 19, the total number of US oil rigs was 418, an increase of 2 from the previous period. The number of rigs is expected to remain low [23]. - Demand Side - In the third quarter, the US manufacturing PMI rebounded, with the ISM manufacturing PMI reaching 51.4 in August, up 4.3 from the previous month. The Chicago PMI remained stable, indicating that manufacturing expansion boosted oil demand to some extent [26]. - As of September 19, the US refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Refinery utilization rates are in a downward cycle, and oil demand is under pressure [29]. - China's manufacturing PMI remained stable in the third quarter but was below the boom - bust line. The main refinery utilization rate decreased, while the independent refinery utilization rate increased. Overall, domestic oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [37][41]. - Inventory Side - As of September 19, the US EIA crude oil inventory was - 607,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 230,000 barrels. In the third quarter, the US EIA crude oil was in a destocking state, but may start to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter [46]. - As of September 19, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 177,000 barrels. In the third quarter, Cushing crude oil inventory increased, while gasoline inventory decreased. Both are expected to face inventory accumulation pressure [51].