地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：青海篇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Qinghai Province has a prominent strategic position and obvious resource endowment advantages, but its economic aggregate and per capita GDP are at a low level in the country, with a relatively low urbanization rate. The secondary industry develops steadily, and the tertiary industry plays an increasingly important role in economic growth. The province's fiscal strength is relatively weak, with a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate, and the central government provides continuous debt - reduction policy support [4]. - The economic development levels of cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province vary greatly, showing an unbalanced development pattern. Xining City has a much larger economic volume than other regions. Except for Hainan Prefecture and Haibei Prefecture, the GDP growth rates of other cities and prefectures in 2024 were lower than the national average. The fiscal strength of cities and prefectures shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [4]. - There are only 2 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Qinghai Province, both concentrated in Xining City. In 2024, the bond - issuing scale increased significantly year - on - year, but the net bond financing was negative. As of August 2025, the net financing scale remained negative. The short - term solvency of these enterprises has improved but is still weak, and the "comprehensive financial resources" of Xining City have a general support and guarantee ability for the "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Qinghai Province's Economy and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development Status of Qinghai Province - Qinghai Province is a link between Tibet, Xinjiang and the inland, with a prominent strategic position and rich resource endowments, including abundant water, mineral, salt lake, renewable, and animal and plant resources. However, the province has a small net outflow of permanent residents and a relatively low urbanization rate [5][7]. - In 2024, Qinghai Province's GDP was 395.079 billion yuan, ranking 30th in the country, with a GDP growth rate of 2.7%, lower than the national average. The per capita GDP was 66,600 yuan, ranking 24th. In the first half of 2025, the GDP was 187.568 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.0% [8]. - The industrial structure of Qinghai Province shows a "three - two - one" pattern. The secondary and tertiary industries account for a relatively high proportion, and the tertiary industry has become an important force in economic development. Compared with the national industrial structure, the proportion of the first and second industries in Qinghai is relatively high, while that of the third industry is relatively low. In 2024, the industrial and service sectors in Qinghai both showed positive development trends, and emerging industries such as new energy and new materials are being cultivated [11]. - Multiple national - level planning policies have been implemented to support the development of Qinghai Province, and the central government provides financial transfer payments and special funds to support the province's development. In 2024, Qinghai Province also introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [12][14]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Qinghai Province - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of Qinghai Province ranked low in the country, with relatively weak fiscal strength, a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate, and low government - funded revenue. The central government's subsidies contribute significantly to the comprehensive financial resources. The government debt ratio ranks in the middle of the country, and the government liability ratio ranks at the bottom [17][18]. - Qinghai Province, as one of the 12 key provinces for debt reduction, has continuously received central debt - reduction policy support. In 2023, 2024, and January - August 2025, the province issued special refinancing bonds worth 9.6 billion yuan, 8.2 billion yuan, and 7.3 billion yuan respectively. In 2024, it obtained a new government debt quota of 43 billion yuan, including a special debt quota of 26 billion yuan [21]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Cities and Prefectures under Qinghai Province 3.2.1 Economic Development Status of Cities and Prefectures in Qinghai Province - The economic development levels of cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province vary greatly, with obvious head - gathering effects. Xining City, as the provincial capital, has a much larger GDP scale than other cities and prefectures. Except for Hainan Prefecture and Haibei Prefecture, the GDP growth rates of other cities and prefectures in 2024 were lower than the national average [22]. - Qinghai Province has formulated a "1 cluster, 2 zones, and multiple points" strategic layout. Different regions have different development focuses based on their resource endowments and geographical locations. In terms of industrial development, Xining City and Haixi Prefecture have relatively strong economic strength and more developed industries, while other regions are relatively backward [25][27]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt Situation of Cities and Prefectures in Qinghai Province - The fiscal strength of cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". In 2024, except for Xining City, Haixi Prefecture, and Haidong City, the general public budget revenues of other cities and prefectures increased. The fiscal self - sufficiency rates of most cities and prefectures are relatively low, and they rely heavily on central government subsidies [30]. - The scale of government - funded revenues of cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province varies significantly. The government - funded revenue of Xining City has been declining since 2022. The scale of central government subsidies received by each city and prefecture is large, and the central government subsidies contribute significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources [32][35]. - As of the end of 2024, the government debt scale of each city and prefecture in Qinghai Province increased compared with the previous year. Xining City has the largest debt balance. Most cities and prefectures have seen an increase in government liability ratios and debt ratios. The province has taken a series of measures to control debt risks and has achieved certain results [38][39]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Qinghai Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are only 2 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Qinghai Province, both concentrated in Xining City. In 2024, the bond - issuing scale increased significantly year - on - year, but the net bond financing was negative. From January to August 2025, the bond - issuing scale decreased significantly compared with 2024, and the net financing scale remained negative [45]. 3.3.2 Analysis of Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises - The debt structure of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Qinghai Province is mainly indirect financing. As of the end of 2024, the short - term solvency indicators of these enterprises have improved but are still weak, and there is still relatively large short - term debt - repayment pressure. The net cash flow from financing activities of these enterprises has continued to flow out, but the scale has narrowed [48]. 3.3.3 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of Xining City's "comprehensive financial resources" to the "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" is 0.48 times, indicating that the "comprehensive financial resources" have a general support and guarantee ability for the debt [50].