股指黄金周度报告-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, economic data generally weakened, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline, and consumer growth marginally slowing. Only industrial production remained at a high level. Macro - policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustments, relying more on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand. The active fiscal policy is being implemented faster, and the monetary policy has more room for operation, with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts still expected [39]. - Recently, stock index futures have risen, driven by policy, funds, and sentiment, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved. With the approaching National Day holiday, there is uncertainty in the external market, so risk control for stock indices should be done before the holiday. The released US economic data is positive, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve on future interest - rate policies. Gold may face short - term callback risks [39]. - In the short term, due to the approaching National Day holiday, stock indices may face callback risks, and gold may enter a phase of adjustment after accelerating its rise. In the medium - to - long term, stock indices will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and gold may face a deep adjustment [39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, economic data generally weakened. Fixed - asset investment growth continued to decline, the decline in real - estate investment further expanded, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed. After a brief recovery, real - estate sales declined again, and real - estate enterprises were cautious about land acquisition and new project construction [4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - Before the holiday, the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations, and market liquidity remained abundant. The gap between M1 and M2 narrowed, and the acceleration of social financing growth was mainly driven by the large - scale issuance of government bonds, including ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds [14][15]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank carried out 1567.4 billion yuan of 7 - day and 900 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse - repurchase operations, as well as 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net withdrawal of 940.6 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8% quarter - on - quarter, reaching a two - year high, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased for two consecutive weeks. The US economy remains robust, and labor demand has slowed but is still within the range of full employment, supporting the Fed's preventive interest - rate cuts [25]. 4. Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market sentiment for going long [38].