节前备货进入尾声，蛋价或将承压走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly affected by the double - festival stocking. As the festival stocking ends, egg prices are expected to decline. The futures price may not necessarily follow the spot price down. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [5][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the spot price of eggs showed a strong trend. The average price in the main production areas reached a maximum of around 3.81 yuan per catty, and in the main sales areas, it reached around 3.82 yuan per catty. The futures contract of eggs also performed strongly, but the increase was limited due to the high inventory of laying hens [4][11] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Recently, the market sales have slowed down. The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly due to the double - festival stocking. As the stocking ends, the spot price of eggs has begun to fall. Although the supply pressure is high and the spot price has dropped, the near - month futures price is relatively low and the trading volume is large. It is expected that the futures price may not follow the spot price down [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see and trade at an appropriate time. Arbitrage and options trading: It is recommended to wait and see [6][9] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the market review in the first part, in September, the spot price of eggs was strong, and the futures price increased but with limited amplitude due to high inventory [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The inventory of laying hens from September to December 2025 is estimated to be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively. In September, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 38%, medium - sized eggs was 44%, and small - sized eggs was 18%. The egg - laying rate in September was about 91.11%, and it is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather. In August, the number of chicks hatched by sample enterprises decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year. The price of chicks in September was at a low level in the same period over the years. The market's enthusiasm for culling laying hens first increased and then decreased [12][14] - Demand side: In September, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak season was not as good as previous years. As of the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas increased by 5% week - on - week but was at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. From January to August 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the catering revenue in August increased by 2.1% year - on - year [21] - Inventory: As of the week of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [21] - Cost and profit: The current feed cost has little change. In September, the price of corn was 2358 yuan per ton, and the price of soybean meal dropped to 3038 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2562 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.81 yuan per catty of eggs. As of September 18, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.45 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.3 yuan per catty from the previous week. On September 18, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 2.97 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [24] - Substitutes: The vegetable price index continued to rise, but it was at a relatively low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated with little overall change, and the substitution demand for eggs was relatively limited [30] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Supply side: The supply pressure is still significant. The rebound of egg prices has improved the breeding profit, and the enthusiasm for culling has decreased. The number of culled hens is at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years, and the age of culled hens has increased. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high [34] - Demand side: As the seasonal stocking ends, the boost to egg prices is limited. The market sales have slowed down, but some areas still have good sales due to festival stocking [34] - Feed cost: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs is about 2.8 yuan per catty. The prices of corn and soybean meal have little change, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level [34] - Strategy recommendation: As the holiday expectations end, the spot price of eggs is expected to fall. The near - month futures contract is significantly lower than the spot price, and the futures and spot prices will converge in the short term. It is a capacity - reduction cycle in the second half of the year, but the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [34]