Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is relatively optimistic, and there is support at the lower end of aluminum prices [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the macro sentiment at home and abroad is positive, providing price support for non - ferrous metals [66]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply will have a small increase, and the price will first rise and then fall, with the upper pressure at 22,000 and the lower support at 20,000. Attention should be paid to the demand - side support [68]. - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum alloy change little, and its price still fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [68]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The electrolytic aluminum price showed a three - stage trend in the current period. From January to mid - March, it oscillated upward due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, Trump's assumption of office, and pre - holiday stocking demand. From late March to early April, it oscillated downward as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation faded and concerns about Trump's tariff policy emerged. From mid - April to the present, it oscillated upward after the US tariff policy was implemented and counter - measures were taken in China, along with other factors like supply disturbances from Guinea's bauxite and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [6]. 2. Macro - aspect - The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and liquidity became more relaxed. The US economic data showed changes in employment, inflation, etc. The tariff impact was temporarily alleviated, and attention should be paid to the time point in November. China's anti - involution policy was advanced, and future inflation might stabilize and rebound [8][10][14]. 3. Fundamental Aspect Supply - side - Bauxite: In July, China's bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's supply was disturbed, but the impact was expected to be limited. The domestic port inventory was high, suppressing the transaction price. The bauxite price might have a seasonal correction but had support at 70 dollars/ton [18][22][24]. - Alumina: The supply was loose. In 2025, there was a large - scale new - investment capacity. Although some projects were postponed, there was still 440 million tons of new - investment capacity in the fourth quarter. The production capacity utilization rate was at a historical high, but there might be seasonal production cuts in winter in Shanxi and Henan [25][27]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In August, the production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In the fourth quarter, the production was expected to be about 11.283 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%, showing a stable operation [30]. - Aluminum Alloy: In July, the import volume of un - forged aluminum alloy hit a four - year low, mainly due to price inversion and the off - season of demand. The export volume increased year - on - year. The weekly inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy increased [59][60][64]. Demand - side - Downstream Processing: As of September 18, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% week - on - week, but decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Different sectors had different trends [31]. - Export: In August, China's export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [34]. - New Energy: In the photovoltaic field, the annual photovoltaic installation was expected to increase year - on - year, and the photovoltaic aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter was expected to decrease year - on - year but still maintain positive growth for the whole year. In the power grid field, the cable aluminum demand continued to grow, and it was expected to maintain high - growth in the fourth quarter [39]. - Automobile: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The demand for aluminum in the automobile industry increased significantly, and new - energy vehicles were expected to drive aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter [46]. - Real Estate: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. However, the new policies in first - tier cities might support the market demand, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [41]. Inventory - As of September 19, the inventory of SHFE electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, LME inventory increased, and COMEX inventory decreased slightly. The overall inventory was in a low position historically. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was expected to show a "slow de - stocking" pattern in the fourth quarter [48][51]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August and was expected to continue to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points week - on - week as of September 18, and it was expected to remain stable in September [54][57]. 4. Future Outlook - The macro - environment is favorable for non - ferrous metals. The bauxite price may have a seasonal correction but has support. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum price will first rise and then fall. The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price [66][68].
铝季报：宏观偏乐观铝价下方存支撑
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-09-26 11:52