南华原木产业周报：外盘报价小幅上涨-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is in a range - bound state. The current price has limited operation value, and a grid trading strategy is recommended. The price of individual specifications of radiata pine in Lanshan has increased, but actual transactions are weak, and downstream production demand is flat. The increase in foreign quotes has limited impact on the market. For the 01 contract, shorting the far - month contract to earn the discount can be tried with a small position, but the certainty is not high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The prices of 3.9 - meter medium A and 5.9 - meter small A radiata pine in Lanshan increased by 10 yuan this week, with no changes in other aspects. The latest foreign quotes showed increases, but the impact on the market was limited. The national inventory slightly increased to 2.92 million cubic meters as of September 19, maintaining a seasonal de - stocking trend. The daily average outbound volume decreased to 59,800 cubic meters per day. The trading volume on the futures market continued to decline, and the increase in foreign quotes had little impact on the market [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a range - bound state. A range grid strategy is recommended, with 805 as the price center, a grid spacing of 5 - 10, and a range of 790 - 820, with a balanced long - short configuration. After the National Day, if there are no new variables, switch to a short - selling strategy [3][8]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - Bullish factors: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low. Bearish factors: The outbound volume is decreasing, and demand needs to be verified. Spot transaction information shows the prices and basis of different specifications of logs [12][13][14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Observe the market's response to the price increase of individual specifications in Shandong and the increase in CFR quotes by some foreign suppliers [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The market is in a range - bound state, with capital reducing positions. The price fluctuation center is around 805, and the trading volume is low [18]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The calendar spread structure maintains a C - structure, with a significant decline in the price of the delivery - month contract. Except for the delivery - month contract, there are few structural changes [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 822, and in Shandong, it is around 825. The buyer's willingness to accept goods is around 782. The current price is within a reasonable range [28]. 3.4.2 Import Profit - In Shandong, the import of 3.9/5.9 - meter medium A radiata pine continues to incur losses, and the losses have deepened after the spot price adjustment. In the Yangtze River Delta region, the profit of 6 - meter medium A radiata pine is also negative but better than in Shandong [29]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - From September 27 to October 6, 13 ships are expected to arrive, with a total cargo volume of 498,000 cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs shows seasonal fluctuations [35][65]. 3.5.2 Demand - As of September 19, the daily average outbound volume decreased to 59,800 cubic meters. The demand for furniture is supported by the high volume of second - hand housing transactions, but the demand in the real estate sector is weak [37]. 3.5.3 Inventory - The national inventory slightly increased to 2.92 million cubic meters as of September 19, maintaining a seasonal de - stocking trend [3].