沥青三季度报：基本面改善预期较弱，原油主导盘面波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In Q4, asphalt is expected to continue its wide - range oscillatory trend, mainly due to the game between fundamentals and the cost side. The high production on the supply side will offset the positive support from the improved demand driven by terminal rush - work at the beginning of Q4. Crude oil lacks directional guidance under the dual influence of fundamentals and geopolitics, with OPEC+ production increase and the end of the demand peak season strengthening the expectation of supply surplus in Q4, while geopolitical fluctuations provide intermittent support for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the BU2512 contract in the range of 3,250 - 3,550 yuan/ton [50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3, asphalt showed an oscillatory and weakening trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. The weak operation of crude oil due to OPEC+ production increase weakened cost support, and nationwide heavy rainfall hindered terminal construction, resulting in high social inventory and a lack of upward drive for the market. Overall, asphalt mainly fluctuated with crude oil in Q3 [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Geopolitical Impact: Frequent geopolitical events caused intermittent disturbances to oil prices. Meetings between the US and Russian presidents, threats of sanctions from the US, suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and threats of tariff hikes on Russian oil buyers by the US and Europe all affected the oil market. In the future, geopolitics is expected to remain a major influencing factor for oil prices in Q4 [9]. - OPEC+ Production Policy: OPEC+ completed a 2.2 million barrels per day production increase one year ahead of schedule in September and initiated a new round of production increase starting in October. The over - expected production increase demonstrated OPEC+'s determination to regain market share. OPEC+ also plans to compensate for 4.779 million barrels per day of excess production by July 2026, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia having specific compensation plans. However, Kazakhstan's failure to effectively implement production cuts may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [10][12]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: From July to August, domestic asphalt production totaled 5.0346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9173 million tons. The weekly production in September reached a new high for the year, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to increase by 9% month - on - month and 46% year - on - year. The refinery operating rate increased steadily in Q3 and rose rapidly in September. It is expected that asphalt production will be high in the early part of Q4 and then decline as refineries enter the maintenance phase [13][19]. - Demand Side: From July to August, domestic asphalt shipments totaled 3.649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.187 million tons (5.4% year - on - year increase). The weekly shipments showed a U - shaped trend in Q3, with demand weakening from July to August due to rainfall and rebounding in September. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity remained stable and increased, reaching 18.94% as of September 22, a year - on - year increase of 0.86 percentage points. However, as the demand peak season ends, both demand and production capacity utilization may face downward pressure [21][24]. - Import and Export: From July to August, asphalt imports totaled 0.6497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0262 million tons, with a relatively stable average import price. Exports totaled 0.1365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0659 million tons, and the average export price increased slightly [30][34]. - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories of asphalt showed a downward trend in Q3. Factory inventory reached 0.658 million tons as of September 26, a year - on - year decrease of 0.265 million tons (40.27% year - on - year decrease). Social inventory decreased after rainfall ended in August. In Q4, both are expected to continue the seasonal de - stocking trend [38][42]. - Price Spread: In Q3, the crack spread of asphalt remained high and oscillated within a narrow range, while the diluted processing profit of asphalt was at a low level in recent years, which restricted the release of local refinery production capacity. In Q4, the crack spread is expected to remain high as demand enters the off - season [47].