新能源产业链月度策略-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Carbonate Lithium: The current supply and demand of lithium salts are both strong, and the intensity of demand determines the height of the market. As the downstream replenishment rhythm slows down, beware of the risk of continuous price decline around the holidays. The subsequent arrangements of Yichun lithium mica mines and international macro factors during the holidays may disrupt the market. The market is in a wide - range volatile operation [4][5][6]. - Industrial Silicon: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. Although the futures price may have an upward correction in the short term, the overall fundamentals are weak, and the upside space is limited [7][8]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals have not changed significantly. The price has rebounded due to anti - low - price sentiment and supply - side reform expectations, but the downstream photovoltaic component sector is under pressure. If no substantial policies or production cuts occur in October, there is a significant risk of price decline [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Carbonate Lithium 11: Driven by news, with support at 68,000 - 70,000 and pressure at 78,000 - 80,000. It is expected to operate in a wide - range volatile manner. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stocking or buying hedging [17]. - Industrial Silicon 11: The weak reality will limit the upside of the market. The support is at 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure is at 9,400 - 9,500. The upside space is limited, and spot enterprises should actively seize the opportunity to sell and hedge [17]. - Polysilicon 11: The upside driven by sentiment is limited. Attention should be paid to the implementation of future policies and the actual situation of silicon material enterprises' self - disciplined production cuts. The support is at 48,000 - 49,000, and the pressure is at 53,000 - 54,000. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options at low prices and slightly out - of - the - money call options at high prices [17]. - Arbitrage Recommendation: There are no good arbitrage opportunities recently [17]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 74,040 | 1.59% | 342,719 | 261,141 | 487 | 40,309 | | Industrial Silicon | 9,055 | 0.39% | 318,137 | 259,965 | - 10,966 | 50,066 | | Polysilicon | 51,365 | 0.89% | 184,786 | 105,474 | - 5,713 | 7,880 | [18] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 20,516 tons, an increase of 153 tons from the previous week, and it has remained above 20,000 tons for two consecutive weeks. The total sample inventory was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons from the previous week, and it has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, but the high - level inventory situation has not changed. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises has continued to transfer downstream, the inventory in the intermediate links has decreased, and the downstream inventory has continuously reached new highs [5]. - Downstream Situation: The pre - National Day stocking of downstream material factories is gradually coming to an end, and the market is becoming more cautious [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. There are rumors of production cuts in the southwest production area during the dry season, but the authenticity needs to be verified [7]. - Downstream Situation: The downstream polysilicon market has weakened recently, and there is a possibility of negative factors being transmitted upstream [7]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: The fundamentals have not changed significantly. The price has rebounded due to anti - low - price sentiment and supply - side reform expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing as enterprises' production enthusiasm is high [9][10]. - Downstream Situation: The downstream photovoltaic component sector is under pressure. The cost of components has been rising continuously, but the terminal's acceptance of high - priced goods is low, and manufacturers have to cut prices to sell goods [10].