长江期货棉纺月报：新棉上市，压力加大-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The current spot market is tight, but as new cotton is about to be listed, market tension will ease. Despite the USDA's report raising global consumption, macro - economic data shows no significant improvement. With global production increasing, supply - demand is balanced. New cotton will flood the market in October, bringing significant pressure and potential price fluctuations [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market follows cotton prices. Due to intense industry competition and declining exports, future pressure is expected to be high [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 9 - month Market Review - In September, Zhengzhou cotton and yarn prices fluctuated weakly. The approaching new cotton listing and less - than - expected "Golden September and Silver October" conditions led to market pressure. The spot market was tight, but the market was trading on future expectations. Yarn followed cotton, with over - capacity compressing spinning profits, and more pressure expected with further expansion in Xinjiang [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - Global Supply - Demand Balance: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons (up 23 million tons, 0.9% month - on - month), consumption 2587.2 million tons (up 18.4 million tons, 0.7% month - on - month), imports 951.6 million tons (up 2.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), exports 951.5 million tons (up 2.5 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), and ending stocks 1592.5 million tons (down 16.8 million tons, 1.0% month - on - month). In 2024/25, production and consumption are expected to increase, with ending stocks decreasing [14]. - US Cotton: In September 2025, the US cotton planting and harvest areas decreased, and the national abandonment rate increased month - on - month. The signing and export of US upland cotton were slow. As of September 18, 2025, the US had a cumulative net signed export of 94.7 million tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 36.22% of the expected annual export, with a shipment rate of 23.23% [15][20]. - Indian Cotton: In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production is expected to be 531.1 million tons (up 1.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), imports 69.7 million tons (up 3.4 million tons, 5.1% month - on - month). Consumption and exports are stable. Ending stocks increased by 5.1 million tons to 103 million tons (up 5.2% month - on - month) [22]. - Brazilian Cotton: In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase to 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a 7.3% year - on - year increase. The national yield per mu is expected to decrease to 125.8 kg/mu, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. Total production is expected to reach 3.935 million tons, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. In 2024/25, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a 5.8% year - on - year increase, earning about $4.85 billion [25]. - Domestic Cotton: In the 2025/26 season, China's total supply increased by 41 million tons to 14.95 million tons. Total demand increased by 12 million tons to 8.42 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 29 million tons to 6.53 million tons. As of the end of August, commercial and industrial cotton inventories decreased significantly. In August, cotton and yarn imports showed different trends [27][31][36]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - Domestic Demand: In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales reached 396.68 billion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total was 3.23906 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. Clothing, footwear, and textile retail sales in August were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [43]. - External Demand: In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.766 billion, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, exports were $170.741 billion, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [46]. - Textile Industry Inventory: In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a 0.12% month - on - month increase. Textile and clothing inventory was 189.91 billion yuan, a 1.03% month - on - month increase [48]. - US Retail and Inventory: In July 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales were $26.908 billion, a 6.44% year - on - year increase. In June, retailer inventory was $58.349 billion, a 1.37% year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.20 [56]. - Industrial Chain Operation: The spot market for pure - cotton yarn had average trading, with prices following Zhengzhou cotton down. Spinning mills continued to reduce inventory slightly, and the operating rate was stable. The all - cotton grey fabric weaving factories mainly had small - batch orders, with limited growth, and the operating rate changed little [60].